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Sha Tin · 2026-01-04 · 09:50

TAI TONG HANDICAP

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 11 ("TAI TONG HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-01-04 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LOVERO, ridden by H Bentley and trained by B Crawford, won, with SMART AVENUE second and LEGEND WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite EVERYONE'S STAR finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1:34.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 LOVERO Closed strongly 1:34.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · B Crawford 7 12.0
2 8 SMART AVENUE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 2 6.7 N
3 6 LEGEND WINNER Led early B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 11.0 2-1/2
4 2 POPE CODY Closed strongly TT J Orman · Y S Tsui 11 12.0 3-3/4
5 1 EVERYONE'S STAR Closed strongly H1 Z Purton · F C Lor 4 3.3 4
6 12 VERMILION TEMPEST Closed strongly H/P/TT A Badel · C Fownes 9 104.0 4-1/4
7 7 PANACEA CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 1 104.0 5-1/4
8 13 BUCEPHALAS XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 8 7.1 6-1/2
9 11 HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT R Kingscote · C S Shum 5 47.0 7
10 4 MORGAN SUCCESS CP-/XB/B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 40.0 7
11 3 SERAPH GABRIEL E-/TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace 6 9.8 7-1/2
12 10 WUKONG JEWELLERY TT M Guyon · J Size 10 5.8 8
13 5 WINNING GOLD TT D Probert · W Y So 14 40.0 10-3/4
14 14 NOVA KNIGHT CP1 Y L Chung · D A Hayes 13 136.0 11-1/4
0 DO YOU JUST CP-/XB-/H1/TT1 · A S Cruz
0 SILO TT · J Richards

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOVERO2. SMART AVENUE+0.05L3. LEGEND WINNER+2.5L4. POPE CODY+3.75L5. EVERYONE'S STAR+4L6. VERMILION TEMPEST+4.25L7. PANACEA+5.25L8. BUCEPHALAS+6.5L9. HARMONY GALAXY+7L10. MORGAN SUCCESS+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S STAR (31.0%) finished 5th — the winner LOVERO was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 EVERYONE'S STAR 31.0% 3.23 5
2 8 SMART AVENUE 14.9% 6.73 2
3 10 WUKONG JEWELLERY 10.9% 9.21 12
4 13 BUCEPHALAS 7.6% 13.24 8
5 2 POPE CODY 7.1% 14.08 4
6 6 LEGEND WINNER 5.7% 17.57 3
7 4 MORGAN SUCCESS 4.4% 22.51 10
8 3 SERAPH GABRIEL 4.4% 22.93 11
9 9 LOVERO 3.8% 26.60 1
10 11 HARMONY GALAXY 3.7% 26.91 9
11 5 WINNING GOLD 2.2% 45.29 13
12 14 NOVA KNIGHT 2.2% 46.48 14
13 12 VERMILION TEMPEST 1.3% 76.02 6
14 7 PANACEA 1.0% 100.17 7
EVERYONE'S STARSMART AVENUEWUKONG JEWELLERYBUCEPHALASPOPE CODYLEGEND WINNERMORGAN SUCCESSSERAPH GABRIELLOVERO — wonHARMONY GALAXYWINNING GOLDNOVA KNIGHTVERMILION TEMPESTPANACEA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 127

PLACE

6 33.5

8 20.5

9 37

QUINELLA

8,9 373.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 122.5

6,9 213.5

8,9 124.5

FORECAST

9,8 927

TIERCE

9,8,6 7,788

TRIO

6,8,9 1,389

FIRST 4

2,6,8,9 3,021

QUARTET

9,8,6,2 70,470

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

3/8 32

3/9 415.5

2ND TREBLE

5/3/8 69

5/3/9 948

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,8/6,8,9 30,695

SIX UP

4,11/1,2,4/6,10/1,5/3,8/8,9 401

11/1,4/10/5/3/9 123,427

1 [Z Purton]

1 [J Size]