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Sha Tin · 2026-01-04 · 07:05

THE PO LEUNG KUK CUP (HANDICAP)

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 ("THE PO LEUNG KUK CUP (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-01-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. POSITIVE SMILE, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D A Hayes, won, with FLOW WATER FLOW second and MR COOL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite MR COOL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:21.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 POSITIVE SMILE Closed strongly B/TT 1:21.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 5.6
2 4 FLOW WATER FLOW Closed strongly B H Bowman · J Size 4 4.2 1-1/4
3 2 MR COOL Closed strongly CP-/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 7 2.2 2
4 14 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly B-/V2 K Teetan · D J Hall 9 16.0 4-1/4
5 13 DIRIYA M Guyon · C H Yip 12 48.0 4-1/4
6 3 NORTHERN FIRE BALL Led early H/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 5 45.0 5-1/2
7 9 VIVA FIRECRACKER TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz 14 45.0 6-1/4
8 12 DASHING MAURISON Closed strongly CP R Kingscote · D A Hayes 6 110.0 6-1/4
9 10 INVICTUS DRAGON Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 14.0 6-1/4
10 8 MADE FOR LIFE B1/TT1 B Avdulla · M Newnham 13 11.0 7-1/4
11 6 EXCELLENT BOY H-/CP1 E C W Wong · C W Chang 1 61.0 7-1/2
12 7 LUCK SMILES Closed strongly TT J Orman · W Y So 2 139.0 7-3/4
13 5 DERRYNBLUE H/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip 8 143.0 9-1/2
14 1 LUCKY XANDER V-/B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 60.0 16-1/4
0 FORTUNE WARRIOR TT · C H Yip
4 WORLD HERO CP-/B2 · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. POSITIVE SMILE2. FLOW WATER FLOW+1.25L3. MR COOL+2L4. FIGHT TIME+4.25L5. DIRIYA+4.25L6. NORTHERN FIRE BALL+5.5L7. VIVA FIRECRACKER+6.25L8. DASHING MAURISON+6.25L9. INVICTUS DRAGON+6.25L10. MADE FOR LIFE+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MR COOL (20.7%) finished 3rd — the winner POSITIVE SMILE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MR COOL 20.7% 4.82 3
2 4 FLOW WATER FLOW 17.4% 5.74 2
3 11 POSITIVE SMILE 9.2% 10.84 1
4 10 INVICTUS DRAGON 9.0% 11.06 9
5 8 MADE FOR LIFE 8.4% 11.84 10
6 13 DIRIYA 7.3% 13.65 5
7 14 FIGHT TIME 6.7% 14.91 4
8 3 NORTHERN FIRE BALL 5.6% 18.00 6
9 1 LUCKY XANDER 4.9% 20.22 14
10 9 VIVA FIRECRACKER 4.0% 25.07 7
11 12 DASHING MAURISON 2.5% 40.68 8
12 5 DERRYNBLUE 1.5% 67.40 13
13 7 LUCK SMILES 1.4% 72.99 12
14 6 EXCELLENT BOY 1.3% 77.64 11
MR COOLFLOW WATER FLOWPOSITIVE SMILE — wonINVICTUS DRAGONMADE FOR LIFEDIRIYAFIGHT TIMENORTHERN FIRE BALLLUCKY XANDERVIVA FIRECRACKERDASHING MAURISONDERRYNBLUELUCK SMILESEXCELLENT BOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 56.5

PLACE

2 12.5

4 17.5

11 14

QUINELLA

4,11 122

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 26.5

2,11 26.5

4,11 40

FORECAST

11,4 266

TIERCE

11,4,2 730

TRIO

2,4,11 83

FIRST 4

2,4,11,14 176

QUARTET

11,4,2,14 4,153

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/4 22

3/11 195