Sha Tin · 2026-01-04 · 05:35
TAI MONG TSAI HANDICAP
Race 3
Race 3 ("TAI MONG TSAI HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-01-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BRIGHT MORTAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won, with ONE MAN SHOW second and SO MY FOLKS third. The 2.6 favourite NOTTHESILLYONE finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | BRIGHT MORTAR B/TT1 1:08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| 2 | 2 | ONE MAN SHOW XB K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 5.4 | SH |
| 3 | 9 | SO MY FOLKS CP/XB1/TT D B McMonagle · C S Shum | D B McMonagle | C S Shum | 8 | 54.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | VULCANUS B H Bowman · Y S Tsui | H Bowman | Y S Tsui | 9 | 5.2 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | NO OTHER CHOICE H/PC/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 6 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SWAGGER BRO B-/V1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 7 | 9.2 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 4 | 21.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | CIRRUS SPEED M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 98.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | MY TRIUMPH H1 K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 11 | 41.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | NOTTHESILLYONE TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 5 | 2.6 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | GOKO WIN B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 22.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | FRANCIS MEYNELL TT A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 3 | 33.0 | 9-3/4 |
| — | 0 | RUBY THRIVE · K L Man | — | K L Man | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | NEW POWER · C W Chang | — | C W Chang | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 18.3% | 5.47 | 10 |
| 2 | 2 | ONE MAN SHOW | 12.8% | 7.79 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | SWAGGER BRO | 11.0% | 9.05 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | MY TRIUMPH | 9.9% | 10.07 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | VULCANUS | 9.3% | 10.71 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | NO OTHER CHOICE | 9.0% | 11.13 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | LEAN MASTER | 7.1% | 14.03 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | GOKO WIN | 6.6% | 15.26 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | FRANCIS MEYNELL | 5.4% | 18.60 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | BRIGHT MORTAR | 4.6% | 21.68 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | SO MY FOLKS | 3.9% | 25.52 | 3 |
| 12 | 11 | CIRRUS SPEED | 2.0% | 50.63 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 129.5
PLACE
2 19.5
9 132.5
10 36.5
QUINELLA
2,10 365.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 513.5
2,10 114
9,10 920.5
FORECAST
10,2 821
TIERCE
10,2,9 32,625
TRIO
2,9,10 5,779
FIRST 4
1,2,9,10 4,947
QUARTET
10,2,9,1 164,407
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,12/2,9,10 354,292
2ND DOUBLE
1/2 52.5
1/10 513.5