沙田 · 2026-01-04 · 05:35
TAI MONG TSAI HANDICAP
第 3場
2026-01-04沙田第3場「TAI MONG TSAI HANDICAP」，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Y L Chung策騎、A S Cruz訓練的BRIGHT MORTAR勝出。ONE MAN SHOW獲得亞軍；SO MY FOLKS獲得季軍。2.6倍大熱門NOTTHESILLYONE跑獲第10名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | BRIGHT MORTAR B/TT1 1:08.84 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| 2 | 2 | ONE MAN SHOW XB K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 5.4 | SH |
| 3 | 9 | SO MY FOLKS CP/XB1/TT D B McMonagle · C S Shum | D B McMonagle | C S Shum | 8 | 54.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | VULCANUS B H Bowman · Y S Tsui | H Bowman | Y S Tsui | 9 | 5.2 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | NO OTHER CHOICE H/PC/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 6 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SWAGGER BRO B-/V1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 7 | 9.2 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 4 | 21.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | CIRRUS SPEED M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 98.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | MY TRIUMPH H1 K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 11 | 41.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | NOTTHESILLYONE TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 5 | 2.6 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | GOKO WIN B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 22.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | FRANCIS MEYNELL TT A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 3 | 33.0 | 9-3/4 |
| — | 0 | RUBY THRIVE · K L Man | — | K L Man | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | NEW POWER · C W Chang | — | C W Chang | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 18.3% | 5.47 | 10 |
| 2 | 2 | ONE MAN SHOW | 12.8% | 7.79 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | SWAGGER BRO | 11.0% | 9.05 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | MY TRIUMPH | 9.9% | 10.07 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | VULCANUS | 9.3% | 10.71 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | NO OTHER CHOICE | 9.0% | 11.13 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | LEAN MASTER | 7.1% | 14.03 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | GOKO WIN | 6.6% | 15.26 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | FRANCIS MEYNELL | 5.4% | 18.60 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | BRIGHT MORTAR | 4.6% | 21.68 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | SO MY FOLKS | 3.9% | 25.52 | 3 |
| 12 | 11 | CIRRUS SPEED | 2.0% | 50.63 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 129.5
PLACE
2 19.5
9 132.5
10 36.5
QUINELLA
2,10 365.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 513.5
2,10 114
9,10 920.5
FORECAST
10,2 821
TIERCE
10,2,9 32,625
TRIO
2,9,10 5,779
FIRST 4
1,2,9,10 4,947
QUARTET
10,2,9,1 164,407
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,12/2,9,10 354,292
2ND DOUBLE
1/2 52.5
1/10 513.5