沙田 · 2026-07-04 · 10:10
THE ARCULLI TROPHY (HANDICAP)
第 5場
2026-07-04沙田第5場「THE ARCULLI TROPHY (HANDICAP)」，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO YIELDING。由L Hewitson策騎、K W Lui訓練的GRACEFUL HEART勝出。SUNDAY'S SERENADE獲得亞軍；QUICK CONTRIBUTION獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.5倍大熱門QUICK CONTRIBUTION跑獲第3名。
場地詳情
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GRACEFUL HEART 後段發力 CP/XB 1:22.08 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 11 | 20.0 | — |
| 2 | 4 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE 後段發力 B/TT H Bowman · J Richards | H Bowman | J Richards | 5 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 13 | QUICK CONTRIBUTION 後段發力 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 2.5 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | ROBOT STAR 後段發力 B P N Wong · K L Man | P N Wong | K L Man | 7 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | GOLDEN EMPIRE 後段發力 CP C L Chau · B Crawford | C L Chau | B Crawford | 14 | 35.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | M M CONCORD 早段領放 B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 1 | 3.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | LUCKY DOCTOR TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 2 | 69.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | RISING FROM ASHES 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 13 | 35.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | LET'S HAVE FUN 後段發力 B-/CP2/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 8 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | GLORIOUS RYDER B Y L Chung · D Eustace | Y L Chung | D Eustace | 4 | 92.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SUNNY DA BEST TT J Orman · W Y So | J Orman | W Y So | 6 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | DECISION LINK V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 10 | 7.8 | 8 |
| 13 | 10 | WORD OF KINDNESS TT E Brown · C S Shum | E Brown | C S Shum | 9 | 42.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | CORNERSTONE CP/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 3 | 115.0 | 19-1/4 |
| — | 0 | FIGHTING MACHINE SR-/B/TT1 · A S Cruz | — | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | VOLCANIC SPARK B · P F Yiu | — | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | QUICK CONTRIBUTION | 23.5% | 4.25 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | DECISION LINK | 22.1% | 4.52 | 12 |
| 3 | 1 | ROBOT STAR | 8.4% | 11.95 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | M M CONCORD | 8.3% | 12.00 | 6 |
| 5 | 12 | LET'S HAVE FUN | 7.9% | 12.65 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 7.0% | 14.32 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | GRACEFUL HEART | 4.4% | 22.54 | 1 |
| 8 | 3 | RISING FROM ASHES | 4.0% | 25.02 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | SUNNY DA BEST | 3.5% | 28.42 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | GOLDEN EMPIRE | 3.0% | 33.89 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | WORD OF KINDNESS | 2.1% | 46.77 | 13 |
| 12 | 14 | GLORIOUS RYDER | 2.1% | 46.89 | 10 |
| 13 | 7 | CORNERSTONE | 2.0% | 49.33 | 14 |
| 14 | 6 | LUCKY DOCTOR | 1.6% | 64.49 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 209
PLACE
4 34
11 47.5
13 13
QUINELLA
4,11 1,567
QUINELLA PLACE
4,11 417.5
4,13 68.5
11,13 84.5
FORECAST
11,4 3,359
TIERCE
11,4,13 12,616
TRIO
4,11,13 980
FIRST 4
1,4,11,13 3,928
QUARTET
11,4,13,1 161,227
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST TREBLE
3/4/4 857
3/4/11 9,472
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,6/4,11,13 35,596
4TH DOUBLE
4/4 54
4/11 444.5