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Sha Tin · 2026-07-04 · 10:10

THE ARCULLI TROPHY (HANDICAP)

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 ("THE ARCULLI TROPHY (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-07-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. GRACEFUL HEART, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won, with SUNDAY'S SERENADE second and QUICK CONTRIBUTION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite QUICK CONTRIBUTION finished 3rd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.0

Result

Official · 1:22.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 GRACEFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/XB 1:22.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 20.0
2 4 SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · J Richards 5 15.0 2
3 13 QUICK CONTRIBUTION Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 12 2.5 2
4 1 ROBOT STAR Closed strongly B P N Wong · K L Man 7 16.0 3
5 9 GOLDEN EMPIRE Closed strongly CP C L Chau · B Crawford 14 35.0 4
6 2 M M CONCORD Led early B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 3.7 4-3/4
7 6 LUCKY DOCTOR TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 2 69.0 4-3/4
8 3 RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 13 35.0 5-1/2
9 12 LET'S HAVE FUN Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 8 18.0 5-3/4
10 14 GLORIOUS RYDER B Y L Chung · D Eustace 4 92.0 6-1/4
11 5 SUNNY DA BEST TT J Orman · W Y So 6 12.0 6-1/4
12 8 DECISION LINK V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 10 7.8 8
13 10 WORD OF KINDNESS TT E Brown · C S Shum 9 42.0 8-3/4
14 7 CORNERSTONE CP/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 3 115.0 19-1/4
0 FIGHTING MACHINE SR-/B/TT1 · A S Cruz
0 VOLCANIC SPARK B · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GRACEFUL HEART2. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+2L3. QUICK CONTRIBUTION+2L4. ROBOT STAR+3L5. GOLDEN EMPIRE+4L6. M M CONCORD+4.75L7. LUCKY DOCTOR+4.75L8. RISING FROM ASHES+5.5L9. LET'S HAVE FUN+5.75L10. GLORIOUS RYDER+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick QUICK CONTRIBUTION (23.5%) finished 3rd — the winner GRACEFUL HEART was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 QUICK CONTRIBUTION 23.5% 4.25 3
2 8 DECISION LINK 22.1% 4.52 12
3 1 ROBOT STAR 8.4% 11.95 4
4 2 M M CONCORD 8.3% 12.00 6
5 12 LET'S HAVE FUN 7.9% 12.65 9
6 4 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 7.0% 14.32 2
7 11 GRACEFUL HEART 4.4% 22.54 1
8 3 RISING FROM ASHES 4.0% 25.02 8
9 5 SUNNY DA BEST 3.5% 28.42 11
10 9 GOLDEN EMPIRE 3.0% 33.89 5
11 10 WORD OF KINDNESS 2.1% 46.77 13
12 14 GLORIOUS RYDER 2.1% 46.89 10
13 7 CORNERSTONE 2.0% 49.33 14
14 6 LUCKY DOCTOR 1.6% 64.49 7
QUICK CONTRIBUTIONDECISION LINKROBOT STARM M CONCORDLET'S HAVE FUNSUNDAY'S SERENADEGRACEFUL HEART — wonRISING FROM ASHESSUNNY DA BESTGOLDEN EMPIREWORD OF KINDNESSGLORIOUS RYDERCORNERSTONELUCKY DOCTOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 209

PLACE

4 34

11 47.5

13 13

QUINELLA

4,11 1,567

QUINELLA PLACE

4,11 417.5

4,13 68.5

11,13 84.5

FORECAST

11,4 3,359

TIERCE

11,4,13 12,616

TRIO

4,11,13 980

FIRST 4

1,4,11,13 3,928

QUARTET

11,4,13,1 161,227

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/4/4 857

3/4/11 9,472

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,6/4,11,13 35,596

4TH DOUBLE

4/4 54

4/11 444.5