Sha Tin · 2026-07-04 · 09:40

THE LI CUP (HANDICAP)

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C+3 7 runners

Race 4 ("THE LI CUP (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-07-04 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. RISING FORCE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won, with PAKISTAN LEGACY second and YOUNG CHAMPION third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Track detail

Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.0

Result

Official · 1:09.10

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	RISING FORCE 1:09.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu	Z Purton	P F Yiu	5	126 lb	2.3	—
2	6	PAKISTAN LEGACY V/TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	4	121 lb	19.0	1-1/4
3	3	YOUNG CHAMPION B H Bowman · J Size	H Bowman	J Size	6	132 lb	5.4	1-1/4
4	2	MUGEN J Orman · B Crawford	J Orman	B Crawford	3	134 lb	51.0	2
5	1	SKY TRUST TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	1	135 lb	8.3	2
6	5	TURQUOISE VELOCITY M L Yeung · K W Lui	M L Yeung	K W Lui	2	124 lb	2.8	3-1/4
7	7	SO NAIVE K Teetan · B Crawford	K Teetan	B Crawford	7	115 lb	24.0	9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26

The model's top pick RISING FORCE (45.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	RISING FORCE	45.2%	2.21	1	2.3
2	5	TURQUOISE VELOCITY	27.6%	3.62	6	2.8
3	1	SKY TRUST	11.1%	9.05	5	8.3
4	3	YOUNG CHAMPION	6.3%	15.90	3	5.4
5	7	SO NAIVE	4.3%	23.34	7	24.0
6	2	MUGEN	3.4%	29.76	4	51.0
7	6	PAKISTAN LEGACY	2.1%	47.07	2	19.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 23

PLACE

3 19

4 10.1

6 27

QUINELLA

4,6 146.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 31.5

3,6 121

4,6 45

FORECAST

4,6 259

TIERCE

4,6,3 1,472

TRIO

3,4,6 344

FIRST 4

2,3,4,6 850

QUARTET

4,6,3,2 11,546

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

3/4 479.5

3/6 527.5

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