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Sha Tin · 2026-07-04 · 12:10

THE CHOW SILVER PLATE (HANDICAP)

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 ("THE CHOW SILVER PLATE (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-07-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. LUCRATIVE EIGHT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won, with ROAD TO GLORY second and ISLAND BUDDY third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.0

Result

Official · 1:09.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LUCRATIVE EIGHT TT 1:09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu 1 1.6
2 6 ROAD TO GLORY B1 A Badel · J Richards 8 111.0 3
3 1 ISLAND BUDDY CP-/V2 K Teetan · B Crawford 10 15.0 3
4 5 LEADING DRAGON TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 5 8.2 3-1/4
5 8 NEXT FORTUNE TT C L Chau · K W Lui 9 8.9 3-1/2
6 12 FORTUNE SUPERNOVA TT M F Poon · D J Hall 4 35.0 4-1/4
7 9 ORIGIN OF FORM CP/TT R Kingscote · F C Lor 12 154.0 4-1/2
8 11 BEST FARM M L Yeung · K L Man 3 177.0 5
9 10 DIAMOND SPARKLE L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 97.0 5-1/4
10 4 MABUBU TT J Orman · W Y So 2 8.1 5-1/4
11 7 SMILING SKY K C Leung · K H Ting 7 32.0 6
12 2 SIGHT DREAMER TT H Bowman · J Size 6 11.0 11
0 KING OBERON B · D J Whyte
0 RISING ELITE B/TT · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCRATIVE EIGHT2. ROAD TO GLORY+3L3. ISLAND BUDDY+3L4. LEADING DRAGON+3.25L5. NEXT FORTUNE+3.5L6. FORTUNE SUPERNOVA+4.25L7. ORIGIN OF FORM+4.5L8. BEST FARM+5L9. DIAMOND SPARKLE+5.25L10. MABUBU+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick LUCRATIVE EIGHT (43.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LUCRATIVE EIGHT 43.1% 2.32 1
2 5 LEADING DRAGON 13.6% 7.36 4
3 7 SMILING SKY 12.2% 8.21 11
4 8 NEXT FORTUNE 6.0% 16.59 5
5 1 ISLAND BUDDY 5.7% 17.47 3
6 4 MABUBU 4.7% 21.31 10
7 2 SIGHT DREAMER 4.3% 23.52 12
8 12 FORTUNE SUPERNOVA 3.1% 32.56 6
9 6 ROAD TO GLORY 2.7% 36.57 2
10 10 DIAMOND SPARKLE 2.2% 44.81 9
11 9 ORIGIN OF FORM 1.5% 68.62 7
12 11 BEST FARM 1.0% 104.74 8
LUCRATIVE EIGHT — wonLEADING DRAGONSMILING SKYNEXT FORTUNEISLAND BUDDYMABUBUSIGHT DREAMERFORTUNE SUPERNOVAROAD TO GLORYDIAMOND SPARKLEORIGIN OF FORMBEST FARM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 16

PLACE

1 32

3 10.5

6 195

QUINELLA

3,6 727.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 38.5

1,6 1,079.5

3,6 235.5

FORECAST

3,6 833

TIERCE

3,6,1 6,693

TRIO

1,3,6 1,872

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 1,558

QUARTET

3,6,1,5 29,168

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,9/1,3,6 295,099

8TH DOUBLE

6/3 60

6/6 617.5