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Sha Tin · 2026-07-04 · 10:40

THE CHAN TROPHY (HANDICAP)

Race 6

Class 4 WET FAST 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 ("THE CHAN TROPHY (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-07-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on WET FAST going. BUSTLING CITY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D A Hayes, won, with BRIGHT MORTAR second and DAY DAY VICTORY third. The 3.1 favourite PEJIBAYE finished 11th.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.0

Result

Official · 1:08.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 BUSTLING CITY 1:08.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D A Hayes 4 4.0
2 6 BRIGHT MORTAR B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 28.0 4-1/2
3 11 DAY DAY VICTORY A Badel · C W Chang 3 15.0 4-3/4
4 2 SPEEDY SMARTIE K Teetan · B Crawford 10 8.2 5-1/4
5 10 NOBLE PATCH CP1 K C Leung · P C Ng 5 47.0 6-3/4
6 9 E HO HO B2/TT P N Wong · K L Man 12 24.0 7-3/4
7 4 GOOD CHAP B A Atzeni · D J Hall 7 16.0 9-1/4
8 12 FATAL BLOW V-/TT M Chadwick · M Newnham 9 15.0 9-1/2
9 3 NATURAL HIGH V H Bowman · C H Yip 2 38.0 9-1/2
10 8 DAILY FUN H1/TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor 1 18.0 9-1/2
11 1 PEJIBAYE PC/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 8 3.1 18-1/4
12 5 TIN FOOK CP L Ferraris · P F Yiu 6 6.5 20-3/4
WV 0 EVERSTAR CP2 · Y S Tsui
0 STAR ELEGANCE B/TT · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUSTLING CITY2. BRIGHT MORTAR+4.5L3. DAY DAY VICTORY+4.75L4. SPEEDY SMARTIE+5.25L5. NOBLE PATCH+6.75L6. E HO HO+7.75L7. GOOD CHAP+9.25L8. FATAL BLOW+9.5L9. NATURAL HIGH+9.5L10. DAILY FUN+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PEJIBAYE (26.4%) finished 11th — the winner BUSTLING CITY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PEJIBAYE 26.4% 3.79 11
2 7 BUSTLING CITY 14.4% 6.97 1
3 5 TIN FOOK 12.2% 8.17 12
4 8 DAILY FUN 11.7% 8.57 10
5 4 GOOD CHAP 10.7% 9.37 7
6 2 SPEEDY SMARTIE 6.1% 16.36 4
7 11 DAY DAY VICTORY 4.2% 23.84 3
8 6 BRIGHT MORTAR 3.7% 27.05 2
9 12 FATAL BLOW 3.1% 31.78 8
10 3 NATURAL HIGH 2.5% 39.45 9
11 10 NOBLE PATCH 2.5% 40.00 5
12 9 E HO HO 2.5% 40.46 6
PEJIBAYEBUSTLING CITY — wonTIN FOOKDAILY FUNGOOD CHAPSPEEDY SMARTIEDAY DAY VICTORYBRIGHT MORTARFATAL BLOWNATURAL HIGHNOBLE PATCHE HO HO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 40.5

PLACE

6 77

7 15

11 41

QUINELLA

6,7 853.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 247

6,11 672

7,11 86

FORECAST

7,6 1,354

TIERCE

7,6,11 16,505

TRIO

6,7,11 3,515

FIRST 4

2,6,7,11 4,610

QUARTET

7,6,11,2 87,669

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

11/6 742.5

11/7 894