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Sha Tin · 2026-07-04 · 11:40

THE IP JUG (HANDICAP)

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 ("THE IP JUG (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-07-04 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. VICTOR SUPREME, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won, with FIREFOOT second and INNO SUPER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite SMART FAT CAT finished 4th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.0 #11 SMILING ONE — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:47.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 VICTOR SUPREME Closed strongly V 1:47.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 4 3.7
2 9 FIREFOOT Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · W Y So 12 11.0 4-1/2
3 3 INNO SUPER Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · D Eustace 13 50.0 5-3/4
4 10 SMART FAT CAT Closed strongly H/P/TT A Badel · W K Mo 14 3.4 6-1/4
5 4 SUPREME MASTERMIND Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 15.0 6-1/2
6 13 I EXCELLE Led early H/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 7 23.0 8-1/2
7 12 GRAND TURBO Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 17.0 8-3/4
8 2 MR COOL CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 10 5.0 8-3/4
9 14 KINGLY DEMEANOR TT P N Wong · A S Cruz 6 10.0 8-3/4
10 7 BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly SR-/B M F Poon · C H Yip 8 82.0 9
11 8 LEAPING STAR CP E Brown · D A Hayes 11 45.0 13
12 5 CELTIC TIMES B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 9 83.0 18-1/4
13 11 SMILING ONE B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 5 40.0 21
14 1 MISSION GIANT V J Orman · B Crawford 3 102.0 23-1/2
0 LUCKY YEAR · C H Yip
0 SHARPEN BRIGHT B · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTOR SUPREME2. FIREFOOT+4.5L3. INNO SUPER+5.75L4. SMART FAT CAT+6.25L5. SUPREME MASTERMIND+6.5L6. I EXCELLE+8.5L7. GRAND TURBO+8.75L8. MR COOL+8.75L9. KINGLY DEMEANOR+8.75L10. BRIGHT INHERITANCE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick VICTOR SUPREME (24.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 VICTOR SUPREME 24.5% 4.07 1
2 9 FIREFOOT 14.7% 6.81 2
3 12 GRAND TURBO 12.5% 7.97 7
4 2 MR COOL 9.7% 10.36 8
5 10 SMART FAT CAT 9.0% 11.11 4
6 4 SUPREME MASTERMIND 7.2% 13.98 5
7 14 KINGLY DEMEANOR 5.4% 18.60 9
8 8 LEAPING STAR 3.4% 29.19 11
9 11 SMILING ONE 2.9% 34.47 13
10 13 I EXCELLE 2.8% 35.73 6
11 3 INNO SUPER 2.7% 37.32 3
12 5 CELTIC TIMES 2.1% 47.75 12
13 7 BRIGHT INHERITANCE 1.9% 52.15 10
14 1 MISSION GIANT 1.2% 81.93 14
VICTOR SUPREME — wonFIREFOOTGRAND TURBOMR COOLSMART FAT CATSUPREME MASTERMINDKINGLY DEMEANORLEAPING STARSMILING ONEI EXCELLEINNO SUPERCELTIC TIMESBRIGHT INHERITANCEMISSION GIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 37.5

PLACE

3 98

6 14.5

9 30

QUINELLA

6,9 205

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 213.5

3,9 506

6,9 65.5

FORECAST

6,9 377

TIERCE

6,9,3 6,302

TRIO

3,6,9 1,942

FIRST 4

3,6,9,10 1,143

QUARTET

6,9,3,10 26,948

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

5/6 323

5/9 127