Sha Tin · 2019-11-09
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SIMPLY THE BEST H1/TT1 1.08.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 11 | 4.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SKY DARCI U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | 6 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO XB1 M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 12 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | MOMENTUM HAPPY CP1 K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 3 | 5.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | KING DRAGON A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 41.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | UNITED WE STAND N Callan · C S Shum | N Callan | C S Shum | 2 | 14.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | JUDY'S STAR B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 3.1 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | LUCKY MISSILE B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 1 | 60.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | RICH AND LUCKY H- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 7 | 23.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | TARGET FINDER H/XB H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 134.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | WILLFUL L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 5 | 142.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | APOLAR WARRIOR C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 14 | 18.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 0 | VICTORY MASTERY K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 13 | 16.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 0 | TOUCH OF FAITH G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 10 | 50.0 | 13 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIMPLY THE BEST, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C S Shum, won by 5-1/4, with SKY DARCI second and GOOD VIEW CLARICO third. The 3.1 favourite JUDY'S STAR finished 7th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | JUDY'S STAR | 22.3% | 4.48 | 7 |
| 2 | 0 | SIMPLY THE BEST | 19.9% | 5.03 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | VICTORY MASTERY | 14.5% | 6.88 | 13 |
| 4 | 0 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 7.8% | 12.84 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 6.5% | 15.41 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | TOUCH OF FAITH | 6.5% | 15.47 | 14 |
| 7 | 0 | UNITED WE STAND | 5.5% | 18.28 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 5.4% | 18.42 | 12 |
| 9 | 0 | SKY DARCI | 3.7% | 26.86 | 2 |
| 10 | 0 | LUCKY MISSILE | 2.8% | 35.62 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | KING DRAGON | 2.1% | 47.78 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | RICH AND LUCKY | 1.5% | 64.89 | 9 |
| 13 | 0 | WILLFUL | 0.8% | 131.19 | 11 |
| 14 | 0 | TARGET FINDER | 0.7% | 143.38 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 45
PLACE
6 31.5
9 15
10 39
QUINELLA
9,10 291
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 84
6,10 163
9,10 90
TIERCE
9,10,6 3,381
TRIO
6,9,10 823
FIRST 4
4,6,9,10 654
QUARTET
9,10,6,4 13,428
3 PICK 1
A1 18.5
A3 —
A2 —