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Sha Tin · 2019-11-09

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MONGOLIAN LEGEND Closed strongly 1.39.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H W Lai · Y S Tsui 9 25.0 3/4
2 0 DEAL MAKER Closed strongly H J Moreira · K H Ting 5 1.9 3/4
3 0 GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B A Badel · D E Ferraris 14 53.0 3/4
4 0 COBY OPPA CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 4 11.0 1-1/4
5 0 VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 2 11.0 2
6 0 VIGOR FAME Led early H-/XB2/TT2 K H Chan · K W Lui 8 14.0 2-3/4
7 0 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 7 14.0 3
8 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE SR-/XB1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 1 5.9 3
9 0 BEAUTY ICON B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 12 19.0 3-1/4
10 0 LAST KINGDOM XB/P1 A Sanna · D J Whyte 6 29.0 4-1/2
11 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE H/P/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 3 34.0 8-3/4
12 0 GRAN MASTER H/V K C Leung · L Ho 11 82.0 9-3/4
13 0 GO GO FIRST B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 10 51.0 15
14 0 EARTH TRILOGY XB/CP1 L Hewitson · J Moore 13 69.0 15-3/4
— 0 WARM THE VOICE C Y Ho · K W Lui — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-09 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MONGOLIAN LEGEND, ridden by H W Lai and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 3/4, with DEAL MAKER second and GENERAL DINO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite DEAL MAKER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONGOLIAN LEGEND—2. DEAL MAKER+0.75L3. GENERAL DINO+0.75L4. COBY OPPA+1.25L5. VOLPINO+2L6. VIGOR FAME+2.75L7. OWNERS' STAR+3L8. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3L9. BEAUTY ICON+3.25L10. LAST KINGDOM+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DEAL MAKER (32.1%) finished 2nd — the winner MONGOLIAN LEGEND was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DEAL MAKER 32.1% 3.12 2
2 0 BEAUTY ICON 12.0% 8.35 9
3 0 COBY OPPA 9.6% 10.44 4
4 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 7.9% 12.59 8
5 0 OWNERS' STAR 7.0% 14.25 7
6 0 VOLPINO 6.7% 14.98 5
7 0 VIGOR FAME 5.9% 16.99 6
8 0 LAST KINGDOM 5.4% 18.40 10
9 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 4.2% 23.76 11
10 0 EARTH TRILOGY 2.4% 41.18 14
11 0 MONGOLIAN LEGEND 2.3% 43.85 1
12 0 GRAN MASTER 1.8% 54.15 12
13 0 GO GO FIRST 1.6% 63.37 13
14 0 GENERAL DINO 1.1% 91.29 3
DEAL MAKERBEAUTY ICONCOBY OPPARIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEOWNERS' STARVOLPINOVIGOR FAMELAST KINGDOMRIGHT HONOURABLEEARTH TRILOGYMONGOLIAN LEGEND — wonGRAN MASTERGO GO FIRSTGENERAL DINO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 255

PLACE

9 52.5

13 12

14 100

QUINELLA

9,13 299

QUINELLA PLACE

9,13 112

9,14 1,083.5

13,14 152.5

TIERCE

9,13,14 19,596

TRIO

9,13,14 1,855

FIRST 4

2,9,13,14 5,187

QUARTET

9,13,14,2 151,391

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 51

A1 —

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

7/9 1,545.5

7/13 62

TRIPLE TRIO

3,7,11/6,7,8/9,13,14 1,446,818

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,7,11/6,7,8/Any Combination 4,444