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Sha Tin · 2019-11-09

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-09 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. UNICORNBABY, ridden by A Badel and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with FALCON TURBO second and TELECOM ROCKET third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite TELECOM ROCKET finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 UNICORNBABY Closed strongly B/TT1 1.21.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · R Gibson 13 27.0 N
2 1 FALCON TURBO Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · D J Whyte 5 4.8 N
3 14 TELECOM ROCKET Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui 8 3.9 3/4
4 5 WITNESS HUNTER Closed strongly B/SR K Teetan · F C Lor 4 13.0 2-1/2
5 8 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly U Rispoli · C W Chang 7 6.5 2-3/4
6 6 SUPER ALLIANCES Led early TT1 R Bayliss · J Size 12 5.6 5-1/4
7 13 SHINEALOT Closed strongly L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 1 42.0 5-1/4
8 10 MY POWER H/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 2 12.0 5-3/4
9 9 OLD HAVANA Closed strongly P H N Wong · C Fownes 6 80.0 5-3/4
10 4 LORIZ B A Sanna · P F Yiu 3 29.0 6
11 7 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 14 124.0 7-3/4
12 12 KA YING BRILLIANCE Closed strongly H-/V/XB Z Purton · T P Yung 9 15.0 8-1/4
13 11 FOODIE PRINCESS H1/TT K C Leung · W Y So 10 14.0 9
14 3 KELMIMI WINS TT1 M F Poon · C H Yip 11 58.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNICORNBABY2. FALCON TURBO+0.05L3. TELECOM ROCKET+0.75L4. WITNESS HUNTER+2.5L5. GOLDEN FOUR+2.75L6. SUPER ALLIANCES+5.25L7. SHINEALOT+5.25L8. MY POWER+5.75L9. OLD HAVANA+5.75L10. LORIZ+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TELECOM ROCKET (27.5%) finished 3rd — the winner UNICORNBABY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 TELECOM ROCKET 27.5% 3.64 3
2 1 FALCON TURBO 17.3% 5.78 2
3 5 WITNESS HUNTER 11.9% 8.38 4
4 8 GOLDEN FOUR 9.4% 10.69 5
5 6 SUPER ALLIANCES 9.1% 11.02 6
6 11 FOODIE PRINCESS 5.0% 20.10 13
7 12 KA YING BRILLIANCE 4.9% 20.54 12
8 10 MY POWER 4.3% 23.37 8
9 4 LORIZ 3.7% 27.30 10
10 2 UNICORNBABY 2.2% 45.35 1
11 13 SHINEALOT 1.6% 61.82 7
12 7 PARTY EVERYDAY 1.3% 77.36 11
13 9 OLD HAVANA 1.1% 87.27 9
14 3 KELMIMI WINS 0.8% 122.23 14
TELECOM ROCKETFALCON TURBOWITNESS HUNTERGOLDEN FOURSUPER ALLIANCESFOODIE PRINCESSKA YING BRILLIANCEMY POWERLORIZUNICORNBABY — wonSHINEALOTPARTY EVERYDAYOLD HAVANAKELMIMI WINS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 278

PLACE

1 20

2 76

14 15.5

QUINELLA

1,2 660.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 177.5

1,14 49

2,14 172.5

TIERCE

2,1,14 9,290

TRIO

1,2,14 859

FIRST 4

1,2,5,14 2,229

QUARTET

2,1,14,5 70,772

2ND DOUBLE

9/1 757

9/2 8,735

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 29

A1