沙田 · 2019-11-09
第 1場
2019-11-09沙田第1場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C S Shum訓練的SIMPLY THE BEST勝出，贏出5-1/4。SKY DARCI獲得亞軍；GOOD VIEW CLARICO獲得季軍。3.1倍大熱門JUDY'S STAR跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SIMPLY THE BEST H1/TT1 1.08.86 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 11 | 4.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | SKY DARCI U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | 6 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO XB1 M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 12 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | MOMENTUM HAPPY CP1 K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 3 | 5.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | KING DRAGON A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 41.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | UNITED WE STAND N Callan · C S Shum | N Callan | C S Shum | 2 | 14.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 13 | JUDY'S STAR B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 3.1 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | LUCKY MISSILE B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 1 | 60.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | RICH AND LUCKY H- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 7 | 23.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 14 | TARGET FINDER H/XB H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 134.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | WILLFUL L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 5 | 142.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | APOLAR WARRIOR C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 14 | 18.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | VICTORY MASTERY K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 13 | 16.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 2 | TOUCH OF FAITH G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 10 | 50.0 | 13 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | JUDY'S STAR | 22.3% | 4.48 | 7 |
| 2 | 9 | SIMPLY THE BEST | 19.9% | 5.03 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | VICTORY MASTERY | 14.5% | 6.88 | 13 |
| 4 | 4 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 7.8% | 12.84 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 6.5% | 15.41 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | TOUCH OF FAITH | 6.5% | 15.47 | 14 |
| 7 | 11 | UNITED WE STAND | 5.5% | 18.28 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 5.4% | 18.42 | 12 |
| 9 | 10 | SKY DARCI | 3.7% | 26.86 | 2 |
| 10 | 8 | LUCKY MISSILE | 2.8% | 35.62 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | KING DRAGON | 2.1% | 47.78 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | RICH AND LUCKY | 1.5% | 64.89 | 9 |
| 13 | 3 | WILLFUL | 0.8% | 131.19 | 11 |
| 14 | 14 | TARGET FINDER | 0.7% | 143.38 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 45
PLACE
6 31.5
9 15
10 39
QUINELLA
9,10 291
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 84
6,10 163
9,10 90
TIERCE
9,10,6 3,381
TRIO
6,9,10 823
FIRST 4
4,6,9,10 654
QUARTET
9,10,6,4 13,428
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18.5