沙田 · 2019-11-09
第 9場
2019-11-09沙田第9場，Class 3，途程2000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、C H Yip訓練的SPLENDOUR AND GOLD勝出，贏出1-1/4。GLORIOUS DRAGON獲得亞軍；TASHIDELEK獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.5倍大熱門HAPPY SEBRING跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD 後段發力 2.00.49 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 4 | 5.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | GLORIOUS DRAGON 後段發力 XB B Shinn · A T Millard | B Shinn | A T Millard | 7 | 9.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | TASHIDELEK CP/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 9 | 6.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 13 | DEFINING MOMENT 後段發力 M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 13 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | HAPPY SEBRING 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 5.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | MONGOLIAN KING 後段發力 U Rispoli · Y S Tsui | U Rispoli | Y S Tsui | 2 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | CLEMENT LEGEND 後段發力 B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 6 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | SUPER ELEGANCE CP/TT A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 5 | 6.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | RULE THEE K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | CHARITY GO SR-/H1 C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 11 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | CROWN AVENUE V J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 8 | 12.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | HOME WIN B N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 10 | 147.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | RULETHEROOST CP A Sanna · F C Lor | A Sanna | F C Lor | 14 | 40.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | JOLLY GENE 早段領放 B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 3 | 29.0 | 14-1/4 |
| — | 0 | I DO Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CROWN AVENUE | 27.9% | 3.59 | 11 |
| 2 | 3 | HAPPY SEBRING | 13.3% | 7.51 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD | 10.3% | 9.68 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 8.8% | 11.36 | 8 |
| 5 | 2 | GLORIOUS DRAGON | 6.0% | 16.65 | 2 |
| 6 | 13 | DEFINING MOMENT | 5.4% | 18.54 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | CLEMENT LEGEND | 5.1% | 19.57 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | CHARITY GO | 5.1% | 19.76 | 10 |
| 9 | 14 | RULETHEROOST | 5.0% | 20.10 | 13 |
| 10 | 5 | TASHIDELEK | 4.5% | 22.16 | 3 |
| 11 | 1 | MONGOLIAN KING | 3.6% | 28.12 | 6 |
| 12 | 11 | RULE THEE | 2.3% | 43.88 | 9 |
| 13 | 10 | JOLLY GENE | 1.7% | 59.61 | 14 |
| 14 | 7 | HOME WIN | 1.1% | 91.87 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 56
PLACE
2 29
5 33
8 21
QUINELLA
2,8 321
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 211
2,8 120.5
5,8 122.5
TIERCE
8,2,5 7,056
TRIO
2,5,8 1,232
FIRST 4
2,5,8,13 5,564
QUARTET
8,2,5,13 121,243
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 19.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
8TH DOUBLE
6/2 36
6/8 219.5