沙田 · 2019-11-09
第 2場
2019-11-09沙田第2場，Class 5，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由U Rispoli策騎、C H Yip訓練的REEVE'S MUNTJAC勝出，贏出1/2。REGENCY GEM獲得亞軍；THE JOY OF GIVING獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.3倍大熱門REGENCY GEM跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC 後段發力 B/XB1/TT 1.47.96 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 6 | 63.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | REGENCY GEM 後段發力 PC/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 8 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | THE JOY OF GIVING 後段發力 B G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 9 | 20.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | PROUD SKY 後段發力 V J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 7 | 8.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | LIVERBIRD STAR 早段領放 B1 K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 5.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | LE PANACHE B K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 5 | 4.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER 後段發力 B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 34.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | VIRTUS STAR 後段發力 L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 14 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SKY GEM V1 A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 1 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | FULL OF CHANCES CP B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 2 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | YOUNG GLORY 後段發力 B A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 4 | 8.4 | 7 |
| 12 | 14 | ROCKAGE 後段發力 B/H/XB/TT H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 13 | 85.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | GUERDON HELMET B2 M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 12 | 131.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 8 | FRIENDS OF NANJING CP/TT R Bayliss · K L Man | R Bayliss | K L Man | 11 | 59.0 | 9-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | REGENCY GEM | 23.2% | 4.31 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | PROUD SKY | 16.5% | 6.07 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | YOUNG GLORY | 11.9% | 8.39 | 11 |
| 4 | 1 | LE PANACHE | 11.6% | 8.65 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | LIVERBIRD STAR | 9.4% | 10.65 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | SKY GEM | 9.2% | 10.93 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | THE JOY OF GIVING | 3.8% | 26.55 | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | VIRTUS STAR | 2.7% | 36.53 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | FULL OF CHANCES | 2.6% | 39.03 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | FRIENDS OF NANJING | 2.4% | 41.65 | 14 |
| 11 | 9 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 1.8% | 56.37 | 1 |
| 12 | 13 | GUERDON HELMET | 1.7% | 57.31 | 13 |
| 13 | 2 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 1.7% | 60.09 | 7 |
| 14 | 14 | ROCKAGE | 1.6% | 61.06 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 632
PLACE
4 56
5 16.5
9 155
QUINELLA
5,9 1,595.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 158.5
4,9 1,292.5
5,9 507
TIERCE
9,5,4 64,116
TRIO
4,5,9 7,345
FIRST 4
4,5,9,11 10,176
QUARTET
9,5,4,11 348,632
1ST DOUBLE
9/5 56.5
9/9 2,668
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 22
A1 —