沙田 · 2019-11-09
第 7場
2019-11-09沙田第7場，Class 1，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K H Chan策騎、J Moore訓練的ENCOURAGING勝出，贏出1-3/4。GOOD STANDING獲得亞軍；FAST MOST FURIOUS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.2倍大熱門CHAMPION'S WAY跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ENCOURAGING 後段發力 B/TT 1.19.92 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 1 | 6.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | GOOD STANDING 後段發力 B/XB N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 9 | 24.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | FAST MOST FURIOUS 後段發力 H Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 3 | 4.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | DRAGON GENERAL 後段發力 B2/TT U Rispoli · Y S Tsui | U Rispoli | Y S Tsui | 2 | 46.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | NOTHINGILIKEMORE 後段發力 B B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 5 | 36.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | GUNNISON A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 4 | 60.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | TAKING AIM 後段發力 XB G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 8 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 13 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 12 | 49.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | CHAMPION'S WAY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 2.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | TIME TO CELEBRATE 後段發力 B K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 21.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | RED WARRIOR 後段發力 TT1 A Sanna · J Size | A Sanna | J Size | 10 | 36.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | WALDORF 早段領放 B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 13 | 94.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 6 | FLYING THUNDER XB C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 11 | 12.0 | 9 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHAMPION'S WAY | 32.7% | 3.06 | 9 |
| 2 | 9 | FAST MOST FURIOUS | 15.0% | 6.65 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | TIME TO CELEBRATE | 10.2% | 9.85 | 10 |
| 4 | 6 | FLYING THUNDER | 7.7% | 13.00 | 13 |
| 5 | 5 | ENCOURAGING | 7.4% | 13.43 | 1 |
| 6 | 11 | TAKING AIM | 5.8% | 17.39 | 7 |
| 7 | 13 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 5.1% | 19.54 | 8 |
| 8 | 12 | WALDORF | 3.9% | 25.92 | 12 |
| 9 | 8 | RED WARRIOR | 3.7% | 26.90 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | GOOD STANDING | 2.8% | 35.31 | 2 |
| 11 | 3 | NOTHINGILIKEMORE | 2.0% | 50.41 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | GUNNISON | 2.0% | 50.63 | 6 |
| 13 | 10 | DRAGON GENERAL | 1.8% | 56.33 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 63.5
PLACE
2 48.5
5 19.5
9 15
QUINELLA
2,5 627.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 154
2,9 131
5,9 39.5
TIERCE
5,2,9 4,009
TRIO
2,5,9 680
FIRST 4
2,5,9,10 3,841
QUARTET
5,2,9,10 67,733
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
9,13,14/2,5,9 227,656
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
9/2 533
9/5 1,709
WINNING TRAINER
B4 —
B3 —
B1 —
B2 40