沙田 · 2019-11-09
第 4場
2019-11-09沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由Z Purton策騎、C Fownes訓練的ENFOLDING勝出，贏出3/4。THIS ONE'S FOR YOU獲得亞軍；CALIFORNIA LEGEND獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ENFOLDING 後段發力 V 1.39.74 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 3 | 2.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 後段發力 B/H M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 9 | 5.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.7 | 2 |
| 4 | 13 | SUPER RED DRAGON 後段發力 H/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 14 | 95.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | GOOD FIT 後段發力 PC/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 5 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | TOUCH OF LUCK PC-/CP2 J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 2 | 7.5 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 10 | 11.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | BOND ELEGANCE B-/P2 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 4 | 34.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | HURRICANE HUNTER 後段發力 H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 12 | 49.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | GOLDEN MISSION TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 11 | 19.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | BRING IT ON TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 7 | 78.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | THUNDER STOMP 早段領放 B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 13 | 19.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | HAY RUN H/TT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 6 | 13.0 | 13 |
| 14 | 6 | GREEN GENERATION B R Bayliss · D J Hall | R Bayliss | D J Hall | 1 | 162.0 | 15-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TOUCH OF LUCK | 25.9% | 3.86 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 | ENFOLDING | 18.6% | 5.37 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 11.7% | 8.56 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU | 9.4% | 10.69 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | HAY RUN | 6.2% | 16.10 | 13 |
| 6 | 8 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY | 5.5% | 18.25 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | GOOD FIT | 5.2% | 19.28 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | GOLDEN MISSION | 4.7% | 21.42 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | HURRICANE HUNTER | 3.4% | 29.64 | 9 |
| 10 | 1 | THUNDER STOMP | 3.1% | 32.11 | 12 |
| 11 | 13 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 2.7% | 37.51 | 4 |
| 12 | 14 | BOND ELEGANCE | 1.9% | 52.56 | 8 |
| 13 | 12 | BRING IT ON | 1.2% | 84.37 | 11 |
| 14 | 6 | GREEN GENERATION | 0.7% | 145.98 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 28.5
PLACE
3 13.5
7 21.5
11 20.5
QUINELLA
3,11 99.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 41.5
3,11 40
7,11 79.5
TIERCE
3,11,7 760
TRIO
3,7,11 220
FIRST 4
3,7,11,13 3,689
QUARTET
3,11,7,13 43,584
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,14/3,7,11 27,064
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/3 975.5
2/11 269.5