沙田 · 2019-11-09
第 5場
2019-11-09沙田第5場，Class 3，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K C Leung策騎、T P Yung訓練的SUPER JUNIOR勝出，贏出N。MASSIVE POCKET獲得亞軍；TAKE WHAT YOU NEED獲得季軍。3.1倍大熱門CALIFORNIA GUNGHO跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPER JUNIOR V/TT 0.56.58 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 8 | 12.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | MASSIVE POCKET XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 14 | 3.5 | N |
| 3 | 6 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B1 A Sanna · J Moore | A Sanna | J Moore | 9 | 27.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | JUMBO PRIZE TT R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 2 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | ALLIED AGILITY H K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 5 | 5.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 12 | 3.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN B A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 10 | 7.1 | 2 |
| 8 | 14 | FANTASTIC FABIO H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 13 | 56.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | ELIGERE G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 4 | 39.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | THE WEATHERMAN M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 1 | 63.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | BEAUT BEAUT H/V M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 6 | 59.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 3 | 178.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | LIGHTNING STAR TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 11 | 97.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 14 | 4 | MY BEGINNER'S LUCK CP1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 7 | 45.0 | 15 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 18.9% | 5.28 | 6 |
| 2 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN | 16.8% | 5.95 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | JUMBO PRIZE | 16.1% | 6.21 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | ALLIED AGILITY | 10.3% | 9.74 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | MASSIVE POCKET | 7.6% | 13.17 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SUPER JUNIOR | 6.5% | 15.35 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | ELIGERE | 5.1% | 19.69 | 9 |
| 8 | 2 | THE WEATHERMAN | 4.8% | 20.92 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 3.0% | 33.04 | 3 |
| 10 | 14 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 2.8% | 35.25 | 8 |
| 11 | 13 | BEAUT BEAUT | 2.5% | 39.67 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | MY BEGINNER'S LUCK | 2.1% | 47.50 | 14 |
| 13 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN | 2.1% | 47.98 | 12 |
| 14 | 5 | LIGHTNING STAR | 1.4% | 74.02 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 125
PLACE
6 75
7 33
8 15
QUINELLA
7,8 181
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 358
6,8 166.5
7,8 60.5
TIERCE
7,8,6 8,287
TRIO
6,7,8 1,340
FIRST 4
6,7,8,11 3,009
QUARTET
7,8,6,11 94,618
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 26
A3 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
3/7 376
3/8 17