Sha Tin · 2019-12-29
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Restricted over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RICH AND LUCKY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by L Ho, won by 3/4, with KING DRAGON second and INVALUABLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | RICH AND LUCKY Closed strongly 1.22.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 5 | 1.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | KING DRAGON S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 4 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | INVALUABLE Closed strongly B1/TT- C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 1 | 6.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | KELMIMI WINS Closed strongly TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 3 | 26.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | VICTORY FOR ALL H- T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 2 | 147.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | LUCKY QUALITY Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 3.9 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | WILLFUL Closed strongly B1 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 6 | 65.0 | 10 |
| 8 | 1 | NOBLE CONSORT Led early B1/TT1 H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 8 | 17.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | RICH AND LUCKY | 34.1% | 2.93 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | INVALUABLE | 24.8% | 4.03 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | KING DRAGON | 18.0% | 5.56 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | LUCKY QUALITY | 16.6% | 6.01 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | NOBLE CONSORT | 2.9% | 34.98 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | KELMIMI WINS | 1.7% | 57.23 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | WILLFUL | 1.1% | 94.11 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | VICTORY FOR ALL | 0.8% | 129.64 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 17
PLACE
2 10.1
6 16.5
7 22
QUINELLA
2,7 72
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 19.5
2,7 29.5
6,7 57.5
TIERCE
2,7,6 234
TRIO
2,6,7 71
FIRST 4
2,6,7,8 184
QUARTET
2,7,6,8 1,439
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 12
A3 —