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Sha Tin · 2019-12-29

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHINING GEM, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/4, with BALTIC SUCCESS second and BE READY third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SHINING GEM CP 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P F Yiu 6 2.4 2-1/4
2 4 BALTIC SUCCESS TT1 G van Niekerk · C S Shum 4 12.0 2-1/4
3 2 BE READY CP1 C Schofield · F C Lor 10 9.3 3-1/4
4 10 DIAMOND BRILLIANT CP/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 11 10.0 4
5 11 HARRIER JET V/TT T H So · P O'Sullivan 3 73.0 4-1/4
6 8 KUNG FU FIGHTER Z Purton · D J Hall 2 7.1 4-1/2
7 1 INFINITY ENDEAVOUR P/TT A Badel · J Size 13 16.0 4-1/2
7 6 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B/H C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 20.0 4-1/2
9 13 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V M L Yeung · L Ho 1 8.4 5-1/2
10 5 ELIGERE H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 200.0 5-1/2
11 3 FIRST RESPONDER CP/TT B Shinn · J Moore 12 17.0 6-1/4
12 12 E MASTER V/XB L Hewitson · C Fownes 5 63.0 7-1/2
13 7 CALIFORNIA LEVEE CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 18.0 8-3/4
14 14 ARDENODE TT M F Poon · W Y So 14 190.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHINING GEM2. BALTIC SUCCESS+2.25L3. BE READY+3.25L4. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+4L5. HARRIER JET+4.25L6. KUNG FU FIGHTER+4.5L7. INFINITY ENDEAVOUR+4.5L7. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+4.5L9. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+5.5L10. ELIGERE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick KUNG FU FIGHTER (24.7%) finished 6th — the winner SHINING GEM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 KUNG FU FIGHTER 24.7% 4.05 6
2 9 SHINING GEM 13.3% 7.52 1
3 2 BE READY 10.7% 9.32 3
4 10 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 10.5% 9.49 4
5 3 FIRST RESPONDER 9.1% 10.95 11
6 7 CALIFORNIA LEVEE 7.6% 13.12 13
7 6 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 7.3% 13.71 7
8 1 INFINITY ENDEAVOUR 4.8% 20.77 7
9 13 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 3.8% 26.56 9
10 14 ARDENODE 2.2% 45.27 14
11 11 HARRIER JET 1.6% 61.74 5
12 12 E MASTER 1.5% 65.00 12
13 5 ELIGERE 1.5% 68.03 10
14 4 BALTIC SUCCESS 1.3% 77.10 2
KUNG FU FIGHTERSHINING GEM — wonBE READYDIAMOND BRILLIANTFIRST RESPONDERCALIFORNIA LEVEEHIGH RISE SOLDIERINFINITY ENDEAVOURSUMSTREETSUMWHEREARDENODEHARRIER JETE MASTERELIGEREBALTIC SUCCESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 24.5

PLACE

2 29

4 36

9 13

QUINELLA

4,9 188.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 215

2,9 62

4,9 74.5

TIERCE

9,4,2 3,665

TRIO

2,4,9 599

FIRST 4

2,4,9,10 1,035

QUARTET

9,4,2,10 20,812

3 PICK 1

A1 19.5

A2

A3

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

1/4 239.5

1/9 297