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Sha Tin · 2019-12-29

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FALCON TURBO Wire to wire B 1.22.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 5.3 SH
2 0 MONGOLIAN KING Closed strongly G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 10 10.0 SH
3 0 EVERYONE'S JOY Closed strongly XB/CP1/TT C Schofield · F C Lor 3 3.5 1/2
4 0 SUCH A HAPPINESS Closed strongly M L Yeung · T P Yung 13 26.0 2
5 0 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B/H K C Leung · W Y So 5 32.0 3-1/2
6 0 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly N Callan · Y S Tsui 1 10.0 4
7 0 SEERITE DRAGON Closed strongly Z Purton · D E Ferraris 14 30.0 5
8 0 DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly M F Poon · C Fownes 8 12.0 5-1/4
9 0 BEAUTY ICON B/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 11 26.0 5-3/4
10 0 MR WEALTH H/P C Y Ho · K L Man 7 12.0 8
11 0 SUPER BULLET M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 4 49.0 10
12 0 WIND N GRASS S De Sousa · J Size 2 5.1 10-3/4
13 0 EARTH TRILOGY CP/XB/TT1 L Hewitson · J Moore 12 31.0 11-3/4
14 0 SALTO OLIMPICO B T H So · D J Hall 6 188.0 12-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FALCON TURBO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with MONGOLIAN KING second and EVERYONE'S JOY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.5 favourite EVERYONE'S JOY finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FALCON TURBO—2. MONGOLIAN KING+0.1L3. EVERYONE'S JOY+0.5L4. SUCH A HAPPINESS+2L5. HANG'S DECISION+3.5L6. NAMJONG PLUS+4L7. SEERITE DRAGON+5L8. DEFINING MOMENT+5.25L9. BEAUTY ICON+5.75L10. MR WEALTH+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S JOY (15.4%) finished 3rd — the winner FALCON TURBO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EVERYONE'S JOY 15.4% 6.50 3
2 0 FALCON TURBO 12.0% 8.35 1
3 0 SUCH A HAPPINESS 11.0% 9.10 4
4 0 WIND N GRASS 10.4% 9.61 12
5 0 DEFINING MOMENT 9.2% 10.84 8
6 0 MR WEALTH 7.3% 13.67 10
7 0 MONGOLIAN KING 6.1% 16.36 2
8 0 BEAUTY ICON 6.1% 16.41 9
9 0 NAMJONG PLUS 5.9% 17.02 6
10 0 SEERITE DRAGON 5.7% 17.51 7
11 0 SUPER BULLET 5.1% 19.48 11
12 0 SALTO OLIMPICO 2.5% 39.86 14
13 0 HANG'S DECISION 1.9% 51.89 5
14 0 EARTH TRILOGY 1.3% 74.27 13
EVERYONE'S JOYFALCON TURBO — wonSUCH A HAPPINESSWIND N GRASSDEFINING MOMENTMR WEALTHMONGOLIAN KINGBEAUTY ICONNAMJONG PLUSSEERITE DRAGONSUPER BULLETSALTO OLIMPICOHANG'S DECISIONEARTH TRILOGY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 53.5

PLACE

4 27

11 17.5

13 17

QUINELLA

4,13 253

QUINELLA PLACE

4,11 65

4,13 83

11,13 40.5

TIERCE

13,4,11 1,454

TRIO

4,11,13 216

FIRST 4

4,11,13,14 791

QUARTET

13,4,11,14 15,872

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 21.5

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

7/4 60

7/13 171.5