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Sha Tin · 2019-12-29

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FALCON TURBO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with MONGOLIAN KING second and EVERYONE'S JOY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.5 favourite EVERYONE'S JOY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 FALCON TURBO Wire to wire B 1.22.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 5.3 SH
2 4 MONGOLIAN KING Closed strongly G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 10 10.0 SH
3 11 EVERYONE'S JOY Closed strongly XB/CP1/TT C Schofield · F C Lor 3 3.5 1/2
4 14 SUCH A HAPPINESS Closed strongly M L Yeung · T P Yung 13 26.0 2
5 9 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B/H K C Leung · W Y So 5 32.0 3-1/2
6 1 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly N Callan · Y S Tsui 1 10.0 4
7 5 SEERITE DRAGON Closed strongly Z Purton · D E Ferraris 14 30.0 5
8 12 DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly M F Poon · C Fownes 8 12.0 5-1/4
9 7 BEAUTY ICON B/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 11 26.0 5-3/4
10 3 MR WEALTH H/P C Y Ho · K L Man 7 12.0 8
11 8 SUPER BULLET M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 4 49.0 10
12 2 WIND N GRASS S De Sousa · J Size 2 5.1 10-3/4
13 6 EARTH TRILOGY CP/XB/TT1 L Hewitson · J Moore 12 31.0 11-3/4
14 10 SALTO OLIMPICO B T H So · D J Hall 6 188.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FALCON TURBO2. MONGOLIAN KING+0.1L3. EVERYONE'S JOY+0.5L4. SUCH A HAPPINESS+2L5. HANG'S DECISION+3.5L6. NAMJONG PLUS+4L7. SEERITE DRAGON+5L8. DEFINING MOMENT+5.25L9. BEAUTY ICON+5.75L10. MR WEALTH+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S JOY (15.4%) finished 3rd — the winner FALCON TURBO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 EVERYONE'S JOY 15.4% 6.50 3
2 13 FALCON TURBO 12.0% 8.35 1
3 14 SUCH A HAPPINESS 11.0% 9.10 4
4 2 WIND N GRASS 10.4% 9.61 12
5 12 DEFINING MOMENT 9.2% 10.84 8
6 3 MR WEALTH 7.3% 13.67 10
7 4 MONGOLIAN KING 6.1% 16.36 2
8 7 BEAUTY ICON 6.1% 16.41 9
9 1 NAMJONG PLUS 5.9% 17.02 6
10 5 SEERITE DRAGON 5.7% 17.51 7
11 8 SUPER BULLET 5.1% 19.48 11
12 10 SALTO OLIMPICO 2.5% 39.86 14
13 9 HANG'S DECISION 1.9% 51.89 5
14 6 EARTH TRILOGY 1.3% 74.27 13
EVERYONE'S JOYFALCON TURBO — wonSUCH A HAPPINESSWIND N GRASSDEFINING MOMENTMR WEALTHMONGOLIAN KINGBEAUTY ICONNAMJONG PLUSSEERITE DRAGONSUPER BULLETSALTO OLIMPICOHANG'S DECISIONEARTH TRILOGY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 53.5

PLACE

4 27

11 17.5

13 17

QUINELLA

4,13 253

QUINELLA PLACE

4,11 65

4,13 83

11,13 40.5

TIERCE

13,4,11 1,454

TRIO

4,11,13 216

FIRST 4

4,11,13,14 791

QUARTET

13,4,11,14 15,872

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 21.5

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

7/4 60

7/13 171.5