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Sha Tin · 2019-12-29

Race 9

Class 2 WET SLOW 1650m 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. GLORIOUS ARTIST, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with ELUSIVE STATE second and BUDDIES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite ELUSIVE STATE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.38.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly 1.38.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 1 4.1 1/2
2 1 ELUSIVE STATE Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · A T Millard 8 4.0 1/2
3 11 BUDDIES Led early H-/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore 10 5.8 3-1/2
4 10 RAGING BLITZKRIEG H A Badel · J Size 2 7.1 5
5 8 PLAYA DEL PUENTE Closed strongly SR/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 13 8.7 6-1/4
6 4 GREEN LUCK Closed strongly B/H M F Poon · C Fownes 6 33.0 6-1/2
7 7 MORETHANLUCKY B M Chadwick · F C Lor 9 78.0 7-1/2
8 13 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · J Moore 11 77.0 10-1/2
9 2 GUNNISON B Shinn · J Size 3 9.8 11
10 5 TURIN REDSTAR CP/TT K C Leung · L Ho 5 22.0 11-3/4
11 3 UGLY WARRIOR B N Callan · Y S Tsui 7 23.0 14
12 12 BRAVE LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 64.0 14-3/4
13 9 CIRCUIT GLORY H/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 4 31.0 31-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS ARTIST2. ELUSIVE STATE+0.5L3. BUDDIES+3.5L4. RAGING BLITZKRIEG+5L5. PLAYA DEL PUENTE+6.25L6. GREEN LUCK+6.5L7. MORETHANLUCKY+7.5L8. SAVVY NINE+10.5L9. GUNNISON+11L10. TURIN REDSTAR+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BUDDIES (30.6%) finished 3rd — the winner GLORIOUS ARTIST was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 BUDDIES 30.6% 3.27 3
2 6 GLORIOUS ARTIST 14.3% 6.97 1
3 8 PLAYA DEL PUENTE 9.8% 10.21 5
4 10 RAGING BLITZKRIEG 8.8% 11.30 4
5 12 BRAVE LEGEND 5.6% 17.86 12
6 5 TURIN REDSTAR 5.3% 18.76 10
7 4 GREEN LUCK 5.3% 18.81 6
8 1 ELUSIVE STATE 4.2% 23.66 2
9 3 UGLY WARRIOR 4.1% 24.46 11
10 9 CIRCUIT GLORY 3.4% 29.44 13
11 2 GUNNISON 3.3% 29.87 9
12 7 MORETHANLUCKY 3.2% 31.72 7
13 13 SAVVY NINE 1.9% 51.43 8
BUDDIESGLORIOUS ARTIST — wonPLAYA DEL PUENTERAGING BLITZKRIEGBRAVE LEGENDTURIN REDSTARGREEN LUCKELUSIVE STATEUGLY WARRIORCIRCUIT GLORYGUNNISONMORETHANLUCKYSAVVY NINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 41

PLACE

1 16

6 16.5

11 18

QUINELLA

1,6 115.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 43

1,11 31

6,11 44

TIERCE

6,1,11 889

TRIO

1,6,11 112

FIRST 4

1,6,10,11 159

QUARTET

6,1,11,10 4,207

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A3

A1

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

13/1 26

13/6 289.5