Sha Tin · 2019-12-29
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. CLEAR CHOICE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with BEST ALLIANCE second and FOODIE PRINCESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite THIS ONE'S FOR YOU finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CLEAR CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 6.9 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 7 | 4.1 | SH |
| 3 | 13 | FOODIE PRINCESS Closed strongly H/TT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 10 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Closed strongly H-/B M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 4 | 3.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | DRAGON COMMANDER Closed strongly B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 9 | 25.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | MEGATRON B/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 8 | 29.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | STARLIT KNIGHT Closed strongly S De Sousa · Y S Tsui | S De Sousa | Y S Tsui | 14 | 47.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND Led early TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 6 | 8.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | GOOD FIT PC/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 2 | 11.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | GREEN GENERATION Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 12 | 220.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | VIVA COUNCIL V-/H2 M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 13 | 26.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 9 | WAYFOONG CHARMER BO C Schofield · P O'Sullivan | C Schofield | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 36.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 1 | 36.0 | 16 |
| 14 | 2 | TANG FLEMING B/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 3 | 15.0 | 32-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CLEAR CHOICE | 13.7% | 7.30 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | BEST ALLIANCE | 11.3% | 8.83 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU | 10.6% | 9.41 | 4 |
| 4 | 14 | MEGATRON | 9.7% | 10.26 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | GOOD FIT | 8.9% | 11.23 | 9 |
| 6 | 8 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 8.6% | 11.57 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 7.5% | 13.35 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | VIVA COUNCIL | 6.0% | 16.72 | 11 |
| 9 | 9 | WAYFOONG CHARMER | 5.4% | 18.47 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW | 5.0% | 19.96 | 13 |
| 11 | 13 | FOODIE PRINCESS | 4.8% | 20.89 | 3 |
| 12 | 4 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 4.8% | 20.90 | 5 |
| 13 | 2 | TANG FLEMING | 2.6% | 38.59 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | GREEN GENERATION | 1.0% | 99.70 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 69
PLACE
1 20.5
3 21
13 49.5
QUINELLA
1,3 166
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 70.5
1,13 198
3,13 150
TIERCE
1,3,13 4,776
TRIO
1,3,13 909
FIRST 4
1,3,11,13 459
QUARTET
1,3,13,11 14,295
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,11/1,3,13 157,032
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 30
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/1 2,305.5
4/3 264.5