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Sha Tin · 2019-12-29

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 7 runners

Result

Official · 0.55.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BIG PARTY 0.55.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · F C Lor 7 2.7 1-3/4
2 0 BIG TIME BABY M Chadwick · K L Man 4 9.5 1-3/4
3 0 THANKS FOREVER CP S De Sousa · J Moore 5 2.3 2-3/4
4 0 JOLLY BANNER B C Schofield · P F Yiu 3 9.6 3-1/4
5 0 PREMIERE SR C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 26.0 4-1/2
6 0 REGENCY LEGEND B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 9.2 8
7 0 CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 15.0 10-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BIG PARTY, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with BIG TIME BABY second and THANKS FOREVER third. The 2.3 favourite THANKS FOREVER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BIG PARTY—2. BIG TIME BABY+1.75L3. THANKS FOREVER+2.75L4. JOLLY BANNER+3.25L5. PREMIERE+4.5L6. REGENCY LEGEND+8L7. CALIFORNIA WHIP+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick THANKS FOREVER (29.9%) finished 3rd — the winner BIG PARTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 THANKS FOREVER 29.9% 3.34 3
2 0 BIG PARTY 24.4% 4.10 1
3 0 BIG TIME BABY 13.8% 7.23 2
4 0 CALIFORNIA WHIP 12.2% 8.17 7
5 0 REGENCY LEGEND 8.7% 11.50 6
6 0 PREMIERE 5.8% 17.33 5
7 0 JOLLY BANNER 5.2% 19.41 4
THANKS FOREVERBIG PARTY — wonBIG TIME BABYCALIFORNIA WHIPREGENCY LEGENDPREMIEREJOLLY BANNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 27

PLACE

4 11.5

5 18.5

7 14

QUINELLA

5,7 79

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 28.5

4,7 16.5

5,7 33

TIERCE

7,5,4 371

TRIO

4,5,7 52

FIRST 4

3,4,5,7 52

QUARTET

7,5,4,3 1,465

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,12/4,5,7 8,272

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 12.5

A3 —

A2 —

6TH DOUBLE

4/5 49

4/7 133.5

← Race 6 Race 8 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data