Sha Tin · 2019-12-29

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-29 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BIG PARTY, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with BIG TIME BABY second and THANKS FOREVER third. The 2.3 favourite THANKS FOREVER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.55.71

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	BIG PARTY 0.55.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · F C Lor	G van Niekerk	F C Lor	7	118 lb	2.7	1-3/4
2	5	BIG TIME BABY M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	4	123 lb	9.5	1-3/4
3	4	THANKS FOREVER CP S De Sousa · J Moore	S De Sousa	J Moore	5	125 lb	2.3	2-3/4
4	3	JOLLY BANNER B C Schofield · P F Yiu	C Schofield	P F Yiu	3	126 lb	9.6	3-1/4
5	2	PREMIERE SR C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	127 lb	26.0	4-1/2
6	1	REGENCY LEGEND B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	2	132 lb	9.2	8
7	6	CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	1	123 lb	15.0	10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick THANKS FOREVER (29.9%) finished 3rd — the winner BIG PARTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	THANKS FOREVER	29.9%	3.34	3	2.3
2	7	BIG PARTY	24.4%	4.10	1	2.7
3	5	BIG TIME BABY	13.8%	7.23	2	9.5
4	6	CALIFORNIA WHIP	12.2%	8.17	7	15.0
5	1	REGENCY LEGEND	8.7%	11.50	6	9.2
6	2	PREMIERE	5.8%	17.33	5	26.0
7	3	JOLLY BANNER	5.2%	19.41	4	9.6

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 27

PLACE

4 11.5

5 18.5

7 14

QUINELLA

5,7 79

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 28.5

4,7 16.5

5,7 33

TIERCE

7,5,4 371

TRIO

4,5,7 52

FIRST 4

3,4,5,7 52

QUARTET

7,5,4,3 1,465

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,12/4,5,7 8,272

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 12.5

6TH DOUBLE

4/5 49

4/7 133.5

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