Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-01-19

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-19 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. MAGNETISM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 3/4, with GOOD DAYS second and LONDON HALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite LONDON HALL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.02.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT 2.02.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D E Ferraris 7 11.0 3/4
2 9 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 8 22.0 3/4
3 4 LONDON HALL Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall 9 2.7 3/4
4 6 ABOVE B S De Sousa · J Moore 3 3.0 1
5 8 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Led early B M F Poon · C H Yip 5 18.0 1-1/4
6 7 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H G van Niekerk · C W Chang 4 17.0 1-3/4
7 5 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B T Piccone · P F Yiu 10 6.4 2
8 10 PRESIDENT STAR B-/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 23.0 2-1/4
9 3 EXALTATION B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 41.0 3-1/2
10 2 TANGMERE V/XB N Callan · C Fownes 1 16.0 3-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAGNETISM2. GOOD DAYS+0.75L3. LONDON HALL+0.75L4. ABOVE+1L5. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+1.25L6. BULLISH GLORY+1.75L7. VILLA FIONN+2L8. PRESIDENT STAR+2.25L9. EXALTATION+3.5L10. TANGMERE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LONDON HALL (27.6%) finished 3rd — the winner MAGNETISM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 LONDON HALL 27.6% 3.62 3
2 6 ABOVE 22.3% 4.48 4
3 8 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 13.5% 7.42 5
4 5 VILLA FIONN 10.4% 9.57 7
5 1 MAGNETISM 8.0% 12.49 1
6 7 BULLISH GLORY 5.3% 18.78 6
7 2 TANGMERE 4.5% 22.44 10
8 10 PRESIDENT STAR 3.7% 27.37 8
9 9 GOOD DAYS 3.0% 33.05 2
10 3 EXALTATION 1.7% 60.46 9
LONDON HALLABOVEMURRAY'S PARTNERSVILLA FIONNMAGNETISM — wonBULLISH GLORYTANGMEREPRESIDENT STARGOOD DAYSEXALTATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 119.5

PLACE

1 28

4 15

9 40.5

QUINELLA

1,9 846

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 57.5

1,9 219

4,9 77.5

TIERCE

1,9,4 5,151

TRIO

1,4,9 591

FIRST 4

1,4,6,9 347

QUARTET

1,9,4,6 13,090

3 PICK 1

A2 33.5

A1

A3