Sha Tin · 2020-01-19

Race 5

Group 1 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 7 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-19 was Group 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. WAIKUKU, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by N, with BEAUTY GENERATION second and KA YING STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.04

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	WAIKUKU Closed strongly 1.33.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	7	126 lb	1.5	N
2	1	BEAUTY GENERATION Led early B-/CP1/TT Z Purton · J Moore	Z Purton	J Moore	1	126 lb	2.8	N
3	7	KA YING STAR B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	3	126 lb	15.0	4-1/2
4	2	RATTAN B-/CP2 C Y Ho · R Gibson	C Y Ho	R Gibson	2	126 lb	33.0	5-1/4
5	6	CITRON SPIRIT Closed strongly H/XB S De Sousa · P F Yiu	S De Sousa	P F Yiu	6	126 lb	38.0	5-1/2
6	4	SOUTHERN LEGEND V B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	5	126 lb	36.0	7-1/4
7	5	FURORE B H Bowman · F C Lor	H Bowman	F C Lor	4	126 lb	13.0	8

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick BEAUTY GENERATION (39.6%) finished 2nd — the winner WAIKUKU was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BEAUTY GENERATION	39.6%	2.53	2	2.8
2	3	WAIKUKU	30.8%	3.24	1	1.5
3	5	FURORE	12.9%	7.75	7	13.0
4	7	KA YING STAR	6.6%	15.06	3	15.0
5	4	SOUTHERN LEGEND	4.5%	22.41	6	36.0
6	6	CITRON SPIRIT	3.2%	31.70	5	38.0
7	2	RATTAN	2.4%	41.10	4	33.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 15.5

PLACE

1 11.5

3 10.1

7 23.5

QUINELLA

1,3 21.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 13

1,7 34.5

3,7 28

TIERCE

3,1,7 127

TRIO

1,3,7 41

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 104

QUARTET

3,1,7,2 627

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 15.5

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

1/1 25

1/3 70

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