Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-01-19

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-19 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SONIC FIGHTER, ridden by N Callan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by HD, with TELECOM ROCKET second and CHEERFUL LEADER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite CHEERFUL LEADER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SONIC FIGHTER Closed strongly B 1.34.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P O'Sullivan 7 12.0 HD
2 6 TELECOM ROCKET Closed strongly CP G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 2 4.2 HD
3 3 CHEERFUL LEADER B/XB J Moreira · P F Yiu 5 2.0 1-1/4
4 9 WITNESS HUNTER B- K Teetan · F C Lor 11 28.0 2-3/4
5 11 GALA NIGHT CP2 K C Leung · J Moore 3 67.0 3-3/4
6 1 LEAP OF FAITH Z Purton · J Size 4 5.6 4-1/4
7 8 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly B-/H1/CP2/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 10 13.0 5-1/2
8 7 JOY MASTER Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 6 31.0 6
9 5 INVALUABLE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · R Gibson 13 32.0 6-1/4
10 10 CHIU CHOW KID Closed strongly TT H N Wong · T P Yung 1 62.0 7-3/4
11 14 SMILING SUCCESS Led early B/TT H W Lai · K H Ting 9 306.0 8
12 12 GOOD RUNNERS WAY B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 8 185.0 8-1/2
13 4 MILLENNIUM DAWN V/TT M F Poon · L Ho 12 344.0 8-3/4
14 13 HURRICANE HUNTER T H So · C H Yip 14 311.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SONIC FIGHTER2. TELECOM ROCKET+0.2L3. CHEERFUL LEADER+1.25L4. WITNESS HUNTER+2.75L5. GALA NIGHT+3.75L6. LEAP OF FAITH+4.25L7. PARTY EVERYDAY+5.5L8. JOY MASTER+6L9. INVALUABLE+6.25L10. CHIU CHOW KID+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TELECOM ROCKET (24.5%) finished 2nd — the winner SONIC FIGHTER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 TELECOM ROCKET 24.5% 4.07 2
2 1 LEAP OF FAITH 22.2% 4.51 6
3 3 CHEERFUL LEADER 17.2% 5.81 3
4 7 JOY MASTER 6.8% 14.72 8
5 5 INVALUABLE 6.1% 16.29 9
6 2 SONIC FIGHTER 5.1% 19.47 1
7 9 WITNESS HUNTER 4.7% 21.38 4
8 8 PARTY EVERYDAY 4.2% 23.73 7
9 11 GALA NIGHT 3.4% 29.21 5
10 12 GOOD RUNNERS WAY 1.9% 51.39 12
11 10 CHIU CHOW KID 1.4% 71.95 10
12 14 SMILING SUCCESS 1.0% 100.66 11
13 13 HURRICANE HUNTER 0.7% 139.94 14
14 4 MILLENNIUM DAWN 0.7% 148.84 13
TELECOM ROCKETLEAP OF FAITHCHEERFUL LEADERJOY MASTERINVALUABLESONIC FIGHTER — wonWITNESS HUNTERPARTY EVERYDAYGALA NIGHTGOOD RUNNERS WAYCHIU CHOW KIDSMILING SUCCESSHURRICANE HUNTERMILLENNIUM DAWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 121.5

PLACE

2 28

3 11

6 15.5

QUINELLA

2,6 238

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 51

2,6 63.5

3,6 22

TIERCE

2,6,3 1,687

TRIO

2,3,6 132

FIRST 4

2,3,6,9 551

QUARTET

2,6,3,9 17,716

2ND DOUBLE

6/2 1,397.5

6/6 88

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 25.5

A1