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Sha Tin · 2020-01-19

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-19 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DUKE WAI, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by SH, with BEAUTY APPLAUSE second and COMPUTER PATCH third. The 3.2 favourite BEAUTY APPLAUSE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 DUKE WAI B 1.08.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 4 6.2 SH
2 8 BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT J Moreira · J Size 2 3.2 SH
3 10 COMPUTER PATCH XB S De Sousa · J Moore 1 3.8 1/2
4 13 STRONGER CP G van Niekerk · J Moore 6 5.1 1-1/4
5 7 GOLD CHEST CP2/TT K C Leung · R Gibson 7 41.0 1-3/4
6 5 RAGING STORM PC B Shinn · J Size 5 13.0 2-3/4
7 6 LOVING A BOOM XB-/B/TT Z Purton · R Gibson 12 16.0 3-1/2
8 4 WATER DIVINER B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 15.0 4
9 14 TELECOM PUMA TT H W Lai · K H Ting 10 329.0 4-1/4
10 1 CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 11 38.0 5
11 3 SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H N Callan · C W Chang 3 259.0 5-1/2
12 2 GUNNISON M F Poon · J Size 14 158.0 5-3/4
13 12 KING OF HEARTS B/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 8 75.0 6-1/4
14 9 LITTLE BIRD L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 186.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DUKE WAI2. BEAUTY APPLAUSE+0.1L3. COMPUTER PATCH+0.5L4. STRONGER+1.25L5. GOLD CHEST+1.75L6. RAGING STORM+2.75L7. LOVING A BOOM+3.5L8. WATER DIVINER+4L9. TELECOM PUMA+4.25L10. CALIFORNIA WHIP+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY APPLAUSE (35.8%) finished 2nd — the winner DUKE WAI was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 35.8% 2.79 2
2 10 COMPUTER PATCH 24.0% 4.17 3
3 11 DUKE WAI 20.3% 4.94 1
4 6 LOVING A BOOM 3.6% 27.72 7
5 4 WATER DIVINER 3.0% 33.33 8
6 1 CALIFORNIA WHIP 2.6% 37.90 10
7 13 STRONGER 2.6% 38.71 4
8 5 RAGING STORM 2.3% 43.00 6
9 12 KING OF HEARTS 2.1% 47.85 13
10 2 GUNNISON 1.2% 86.39 12
11 7 GOLD CHEST 0.8% 131.11 5
12 3 SAUL'S SPECIAL 0.6% 162.79 11
13 9 LITTLE BIRD 0.6% 175.98 14
14 14 TELECOM PUMA 0.5% 182.05 9
BEAUTY APPLAUSECOMPUTER PATCHDUKE WAI — wonLOVING A BOOMWATER DIVINERCALIFORNIA WHIPSTRONGERRAGING STORMKING OF HEARTSGUNNISONGOLD CHESTSAUL'S SPECIALLITTLE BIRDTELECOM PUMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 62

PLACE

8 13.5

10 15

11 20

QUINELLA

8,11 100.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,10 23.5

8,11 37

10,11 40

TIERCE

11,8,10 550

TRIO

8,10,11 61

FIRST 4

8,10,11,13 121

QUARTET

11,8,10,13 3,366

3 PICK 1

A2 24

A1

A3

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

3/8 42.5

3/11 444.5