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Sha Tin · 2020-01-19

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 UNDEFEATED B1 1.09.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H N Wong · K W Lui 2 7.3 SH
2 0 POWER KING H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 11 3.2 SH
3 0 SPARKLING STAR H Z Purton · W Y So 10 4.8 1-1/2
4 0 MOON PEAKS B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 5 7.6 2
5 0 INCANTO PREPARED B-/E1/TT G van Niekerk · J Size 9 48.0 3
6 0 EPTIWINS CP-/XB- T Piccone · L Ho 4 9.6 3-1/4
7 0 SPONTANEOUS B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 13 11.0 3-1/4
8 0 MIGHTY VALOR B1 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 7 16.0 3-1/4
9 0 ONE HAPPY STAR T H So · C H Yip 3 122.0 5-3/4
10 0 MELBOURNE HALL XB1 H Bowman · D J Hall 8 15.0 6
11 0 LITTLE THUNDER B1 M F Poon · A T Millard 12 16.0 8-3/4
12 0 VICTORY FOR ALL K H Chan · Y S Tsui 6 64.0 9-3/4
13 0 STRONG PROMISE TT K C Leung · T P Yung 14 235.0 15
14 0 FLYING EMPEROR H T Mo · C W Chang 1 347.0 17-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. UNDEFEATED, ridden by H N Wong and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with POWER KING second and SPARKLING STAR third. The 3.2 favourite POWER KING finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNDEFEATED—2. POWER KING+0.1L3. SPARKLING STAR+1.5L4. MOON PEAKS+2L5. INCANTO PREPARED+3L6. EPTIWINS+3.25L7. SPONTANEOUS+3.25L8. MIGHTY VALOR+3.25L9. ONE HAPPY STAR+5.75L10. MELBOURNE HALL+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick POWER KING (22.6%) finished 2nd — the winner UNDEFEATED was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 POWER KING 22.6% 4.43 2
2 0 SPARKLING STAR 19.5% 5.12 3
3 0 LITTLE THUNDER 10.6% 9.41 11
4 0 EPTIWINS 9.7% 10.35 6
5 0 MOON PEAKS 8.1% 12.28 4
6 0 UNDEFEATED 6.5% 15.30 1
7 0 SPONTANEOUS 6.2% 16.14 7
8 0 MELBOURNE HALL 4.5% 22.07 10
9 0 MIGHTY VALOR 3.6% 27.65 8
10 0 INCANTO PREPARED 3.4% 29.44 5
11 0 ONE HAPPY STAR 1.7% 57.43 9
12 0 STRONG PROMISE 1.3% 79.52 13
13 0 VICTORY FOR ALL 1.2% 82.25 12
14 0 FLYING EMPEROR 1.0% 102.52 14
POWER KINGSPARKLING STARLITTLE THUNDEREPTIWINSMOON PEAKSUNDEFEATED — wonSPONTANEOUSMELBOURNE HALLMIGHTY VALORINCANTO PREPAREDONE HAPPY STARSTRONG PROMISEVICTORY FOR ALLFLYING EMPEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 73.5

PLACE

3 15

4 20

6 23

QUINELLA

3,6 123

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 35

3,6 52

4,6 85.5

TIERCE

6,3,4 1,761

TRIO

3,4,6 237

FIRST 4

3,4,6,8 265

QUARTET

6,3,4,8 8,611

1ST DOUBLE

1/3 85

1/6 1,653.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 27

A2 —