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Sha Tin · 2020-02-02

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-02 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FOODIE PRINCESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with MEGATRON second and THIS ONE'S FOR YOU third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 FOODIE PRINCESS Closed strongly H-/TT 1.39.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · W Y So 9 3.3 1/2
2 12 MEGATRON B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 2 11.0 1/2
3 7 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Closed strongly B T Piccone · K W Lui 14 3.6 2-3/4
4 11 CURLING LUXURY Led early H N Wong · Y S Tsui 10 29.0 4-1/4
5 8 MISTER MONTE Closed strongly B S De Sousa · C W Chang 13 14.0 5
6 14 KA YING BRILLIANCE P M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 23.0 5
7 2 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 12.0 6-1/2
8 10 KELMIMI WINS P1/TT A Badel · C H Yip 4 14.0 7-1/2
9 9 GOOD FIT Closed strongly PC/TT K H Chan · F C Lor 1 30.0 9-1/2
10 6 WILLIE WAY Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 12 48.0 10-1/4
11 4 MEGA RED B B Shinn · C W Chang 6 34.0 11
12 1 DRAGON COMMANDER N Callan · D E Ferraris 3 6.4 11-1/4
13 3 LASTING FRIENDSHIP H/P H T Mo · L Ho 7 72.0 14-3/4
5 TANG FLEMING C Y Ho · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOODIE PRINCESS2. MEGATRON+0.5L3. THIS ONE'S FOR YOU+2.75L4. CURLING LUXURY+4.25L5. MISTER MONTE+5L6. KA YING BRILLIANCE+5L7. DREAM WARRIORS+6.5L8. KELMIMI WINS+7.5L9. GOOD FIT+9.5L10. WILLIE WAY+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FOODIE PRINCESS (29.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 FOODIE PRINCESS 29.8% 3.36 1
2 1 DRAGON COMMANDER 17.2% 5.81 12
3 7 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 14.4% 6.92 3
4 12 MEGATRON 7.3% 13.71 2
5 2 DREAM WARRIORS 6.0% 16.73 7
6 3 LASTING FRIENDSHIP 5.7% 17.43 13
7 8 MISTER MONTE 5.6% 17.90 5
8 9 GOOD FIT 3.2% 30.99 9
9 14 KA YING BRILLIANCE 2.9% 34.32 6
10 11 CURLING LUXURY 2.4% 41.78 4
11 10 KELMIMI WINS 2.1% 47.58 8
12 4 MEGA RED 1.9% 52.28 11
13 6 WILLIE WAY 1.4% 69.63 10
FOODIE PRINCESS — wonDRAGON COMMANDERTHIS ONE'S FOR YOUMEGATRONDREAM WARRIORSLASTING FRIENDSHIPMISTER MONTEGOOD FITKA YING BRILLIANCECURLING LUXURYKELMIMI WINSMEGA REDWILLIE WAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 33.5

PLACE

7 15.5

12 31

13 16

QUINELLA

12,13 173

QUINELLA PLACE

7,12 76

7,13 33

12,13 69

TIERCE

13,12,7 1,004

TRIO

7,12,13 185

FIRST 4

7,11,12,13 1,293

QUARTET

13,12,7,11 21,017

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 22

A2

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

4/5,13 82

4/12 62.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,5,14/3,4,5/12>5,7,13 67,242

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,14/3,4,5/Any Combination 1,017