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Sha Tin · 2020-02-02

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FOODIE PRINCESS Closed strongly H-/TT 1.39.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · W Y So 9 3.3 1/2
2 0 MEGATRON B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 2 11.0 1/2
3 0 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Closed strongly B T Piccone · K W Lui 14 3.6 2-3/4
4 0 CURLING LUXURY Led early H N Wong · Y S Tsui 10 29.0 4-1/4
5 0 MISTER MONTE Closed strongly B S De Sousa · C W Chang 13 14.0 5
6 0 KA YING BRILLIANCE P M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 23.0 5
7 0 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 12.0 6-1/2
8 0 KELMIMI WINS P1/TT A Badel · C H Yip 4 14.0 7-1/2
9 0 GOOD FIT Closed strongly PC/TT K H Chan · F C Lor 1 30.0 9-1/2
10 0 WILLIE WAY Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 12 48.0 10-1/4
11 0 MEGA RED B B Shinn · C W Chang 6 34.0 11
12 0 DRAGON COMMANDER N Callan · D E Ferraris 3 6.4 11-1/4
13 0 LASTING FRIENDSHIP H/P H T Mo · L Ho 7 72.0 14-3/4
— 0 TANG FLEMING C Y Ho · C W Chang — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-02 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FOODIE PRINCESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with MEGATRON second and THIS ONE'S FOR YOU third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOODIE PRINCESS—2. MEGATRON+0.5L3. THIS ONE'S FOR YOU+2.75L4. CURLING LUXURY+4.25L5. MISTER MONTE+5L6. KA YING BRILLIANCE+5L7. DREAM WARRIORS+6.5L8. KELMIMI WINS+7.5L9. GOOD FIT+9.5L10. WILLIE WAY+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FOODIE PRINCESS (29.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FOODIE PRINCESS 29.8% 3.36 1
2 0 DRAGON COMMANDER 17.2% 5.81 12
3 0 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 14.4% 6.92 3
4 0 MEGATRON 7.3% 13.71 2
5 0 DREAM WARRIORS 6.0% 16.73 7
6 0 LASTING FRIENDSHIP 5.7% 17.43 13
7 0 MISTER MONTE 5.6% 17.90 5
8 0 GOOD FIT 3.2% 30.99 9
9 0 KA YING BRILLIANCE 2.9% 34.32 6
10 0 CURLING LUXURY 2.4% 41.78 4
11 0 KELMIMI WINS 2.1% 47.58 8
12 0 MEGA RED 1.9% 52.28 11
13 0 WILLIE WAY 1.4% 69.63 10
FOODIE PRINCESS — wonDRAGON COMMANDERTHIS ONE'S FOR YOUMEGATRONDREAM WARRIORSLASTING FRIENDSHIPMISTER MONTEGOOD FITKA YING BRILLIANCECURLING LUXURYKELMIMI WINSMEGA REDWILLIE WAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 33.5

PLACE

7 15.5

12 31

13 16

QUINELLA

12,13 173

QUINELLA PLACE

7,12 76

7,13 33

12,13 69

TIERCE

13,12,7 1,004

TRIO

7,12,13 185

FIRST 4

7,11,12,13 1,293

QUARTET

13,12,7,11 21,017

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 22

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

4/5,13 82

4/12 62.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,5,14/3,4,5/12>5,7,13 67,242

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,14/3,4,5/Any Combination 1,017