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Sha Tin · 2020-02-02

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-02 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HONG KONG WIN, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by N, with VALIANT DREAM second and HARMONY AND RICH third. The 3.2 favourite VALIANT DREAM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HONG KONG WIN B 0.56.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 1 6.4 N
2 8 VALIANT DREAM B Shinn · K W Lui 14 3.2 N
3 5 HARMONY AND RICH H- Z Purton · W Y So 10 4.1 1/2
4 10 UTOPIA LIFE B S De Sousa · K L Man 3 6.6 1-3/4
5 12 KA YING MASTER TT J Moreira · T P Yung 2 6.4 2-3/4
6 4 KASI FARASI H/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 148.0 3
7 6 LUCKY PUZZLE H1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 452.0 4
8 9 LARSON CP N Callan · J Moore 5 27.0 4-1/2
9 1 BALTIC WHISPER TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 7 16.0 4-1/2
10 13 DRAGON HAS LANDED CP1/TT1 T Piccone · C S Shum 6 155.0 4-3/4
11 14 BEAUT BEAUT H/V H W Lai · L Ho 11 130.0 6
12 11 GOKO B/TT H T Mo · C H Yip 13 33.0 6-1/2
13 7 NUREMBERG B1/TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 52.0 9
14 3 SUPER JUNIOR V/TT K H Chan · T P Yung 9 36.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HONG KONG WIN2. VALIANT DREAM+0.05L3. HARMONY AND RICH+0.5L4. UTOPIA LIFE+1.75L5. KA YING MASTER+2.75L6. KASI FARASI+3L7. LUCKY PUZZLE+4L8. LARSON+4.5L9. BALTIC WHISPER+4.5L10. DRAGON HAS LANDED+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HONG KONG WIN (24.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HONG KONG WIN 24.1% 4.15 1
2 8 VALIANT DREAM 13.5% 7.43 2
3 12 KA YING MASTER 12.2% 8.22 5
4 5 HARMONY AND RICH 11.9% 8.43 3
5 10 UTOPIA LIFE 9.7% 10.26 4
6 1 BALTIC WHISPER 6.4% 15.68 9
7 7 NUREMBERG 5.9% 16.84 13
8 13 DRAGON HAS LANDED 4.2% 23.89 10
9 9 LARSON 3.5% 28.25 8
10 11 GOKO 3.1% 32.12 12
11 3 SUPER JUNIOR 3.0% 33.78 14
12 14 BEAUT BEAUT 1.1% 90.04 11
13 4 KASI FARASI 0.9% 110.40 6
14 6 LUCKY PUZZLE 0.5% 190.81 7
HONG KONG WIN — wonVALIANT DREAMKA YING MASTERHARMONY AND RICHUTOPIA LIFEBALTIC WHISPERNUREMBERGDRAGON HAS LANDEDLARSONGOKOSUPER JUNIORBEAUT BEAUTKASI FARASILUCKY PUZZLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 64

PLACE

2 21

5 17

8 14

QUINELLA

2,8 122

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 63

2,8 48

5,8 32

TIERCE

2,8,5 1,185

TRIO

2,5,8 176

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 255

QUARTET

2,8,5,10 7,626

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 16

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

10/2 882

10/8 105