Sha Tin · 2020-03-08
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY MORE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with MERIDIAN GENIUS second and ALL IN MIND third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY MORE 1.09.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 2.0 | SH |
| 2 | 6 | MERIDIAN GENIUS J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 5 | 6.1 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | ALL IN MIND XB/H1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | PING HAI BRAVO G van Niekerk · J Size | G van Niekerk | J Size | 4 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SHINING GEM CP C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 12 | 29.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | GRADE ONE B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 24.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 7 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | BEAUTY AMIGO CP-/B1 K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 8 | 76.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | WHISKEY NEAT B1/TT N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 6 | 106.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 2 | 34.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | AFRICAN SKY TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 11 | 394.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | YOUNG THUNDER CP1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 9 | 185.0 | 10-3/4 |
| — | 0 | VALIANT DREAM B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY MORE | 28.1% | 3.56 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | PING HAI BRAVO | 18.2% | 5.51 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | MERIDIAN GENIUS | 17.5% | 5.70 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | ALL IN MIND | 12.5% | 8.00 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | SHINING GEM | 6.0% | 16.54 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | TEAM SPIRIT | 5.9% | 16.93 | 10 |
| 7 | 8 | BIG FORTUNE | 5.4% | 18.64 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | GRADE ONE | 2.8% | 36.03 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | YOUNG THUNDER | 1.4% | 72.49 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 1.0% | 99.08 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | WHISKEY NEAT | 0.8% | 131.32 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | AFRICAN SKY | 0.5% | 201.16 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 20.5
PLACE
1 12.5
5 31
6 15
QUINELLA
1,6 57
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 51.5
1,6 27.5
5,6 63.5
TIERCE
1,6,5 418
TRIO
1,5,6 138
FIRST 4
1,5,6,12 91
QUARTET
1,6,5,12 1,254
10TH DOUBLE
10/1 225.5
10/6 61.5
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 15.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,10,12/1,5,6 1,969
SIX UP
3/6/5/7/10/1 22,032
3,12/6,9/5,8/7,12/10,12/1,6 2,243
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
7/10/1 1,884
7/10/6 736