Sha Tin · 2020-03-08
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TOUCH OF LUCK, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by N, with EXCEL DELIGHT second and FORTUNE HAPPINESS third. The 3.4 favourite EXCEL DELIGHT finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TOUCH OF LUCK CP 1.09.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 5 | 7.6 | N |
| 2 | 10 | EXCEL DELIGHT H J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 3.4 | N |
| 3 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | ELITE BOY B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 10 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | GOLDIE FLANKER B Shinn · K L Man | B Shinn | K L Man | 8 | 53.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | SKY TREASURE H C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 12 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | STRATHCLYDE B/TT G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 3 | 6.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | BEAUTY ANGEL TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 2 | 62.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | MEGA RED B M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 7 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SUPREME PATROL SR-/B2 N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 6 | 15.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | FLYING NOBLE CP/TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 32.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | SPACE B-/P1/XB1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 1 | 17.0 | 17-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TOUCH OF LUCK | 26.5% | 3.77 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | STRATHCLYDE | 12.9% | 7.76 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 12.7% | 7.88 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | EXCEL DELIGHT | 9.5% | 10.54 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | FLYING NOBLE | 7.2% | 13.90 | 11 |
| 6 | 1 | ELITE BOY | 6.9% | 14.51 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPREME PATROL | 6.2% | 16.19 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | SKY TREASURE | 4.6% | 21.51 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | SPACE | 3.9% | 25.47 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | BEAUTY ANGEL | 3.6% | 27.58 | 8 |
| 11 | 5 | MEGA RED | 3.4% | 29.51 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | GOLDIE FLANKER | 2.6% | 38.54 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 76.5
PLACE
2 18.5
3 23.5
10 14
QUINELLA
3,10 112.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 55.5
2,10 34.5
3,10 55.5
TIERCE
3,10,2 1,039
TRIO
2,3,10 165
FIRST 4
1,2,3,10 341
QUARTET
3,10,2,1 8,024
1ST DOUBLE
7/3 596.5
7/10 73.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 23.5
A1 —