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Sha Tin · 2020-03-08

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-08 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LAKESHORE EAGLE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by N, with SMART PATCH second and CHEERFUL LEADER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite CHEERFUL LEADER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly 1.34.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 4 4.3 N
2 8 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B C Schofield · K L Man 14 14.0 N
3 14 CHEERFUL LEADER Closed strongly B/XB J Moreira · P F Yiu 10 3.5 3/4
4 4 COT CAMPBELL Closed strongly XB-/B G van Niekerk · A T Millard 8 10.0 1-1/4
5 2 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · C S Shum 13 24.0 2-3/4
6 1 GAMEPLAYER TIMES XB B Shinn · D J Whyte 2 83.0 3
7 9 WIND GLIDER Closed strongly B/TT1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 12 365.0 3
8 3 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly Z Purton · Y S Tsui 6 9.4 3-1/4
9 6 MR ALDAN B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 3 5.3 3-1/4
10 7 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 5 9.3 5
11 10 NUREMBERG B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 11 341.0 7-1/2
12 13 GO BALLISTIC Led early SR M F Poon · D E Ferraris 7 22.0 10-3/4
13 11 COBY BA H H N Wong · K W Lui 1 295.0 14-1/4
14 12 EARTH TRILOGY CP/XB/TT K H Chan · J Moore 9 42.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LAKESHORE EAGLE2. SMART PATCH+0.05L3. CHEERFUL LEADER+0.75L4. COT CAMPBELL+1.25L5. CHARITY GO+2.75L6. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+3L7. WIND GLIDER+3L8. GLORIOUS LOVER+3.25L9. MR ALDAN+3.25L10. SUPER ELEGANCE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CHEERFUL LEADER (35.8%) finished 3rd — the winner LAKESHORE EAGLE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 CHEERFUL LEADER 35.8% 2.80 3
2 6 MR ALDAN 12.5% 8.01 9
3 3 GLORIOUS LOVER 9.8% 10.20 8
4 5 LAKESHORE EAGLE 8.9% 11.22 1
5 7 SUPER ELEGANCE 8.5% 11.82 10
6 8 SMART PATCH 7.4% 13.48 2
7 2 CHARITY GO 5.8% 17.29 5
8 4 COT CAMPBELL 3.9% 25.39 4
9 13 GO BALLISTIC 2.5% 40.37 12
10 1 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 1.9% 52.12 6
11 12 EARTH TRILOGY 1.3% 79.26 14
12 11 COBY BA 0.7% 151.26 13
13 9 WIND GLIDER 0.6% 176.52 7
14 10 NUREMBERG 0.6% 181.41 11
CHEERFUL LEADERMR ALDANGLORIOUS LOVERLAKESHORE EAGLE — wonSUPER ELEGANCESMART PATCHCHARITY GOCOT CAMPBELLGO BALLISTICGAMEPLAYER TIMESEARTH TRILOGYCOBY BAWIND GLIDERNUREMBERG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 43

PLACE

5 17.5

8 39

14 16

QUINELLA

5,8 252.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 80

5,14 35.5

8,14 73

TIERCE

5,8,14 2,507

TRIO

5,8,14 278

FIRST 4

4,5,8,14 818

QUARTET

5,8,14,4 20,551

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,10/5,8,14 20,517

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 29.5

A2

A3

7TH DOUBLE

6/5 120.5

6/8 65