Sha Tin · 2020-03-08
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-08 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HOT KING PRAWN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with THANKS FOREVER second and MR STUNNING third. The 1.9 favourite BIG PARTY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN 1.08.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | THANKS FOREVER CP Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 4 | 4.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | MR STUNNING K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 30.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | VOYAGE WARRIOR M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 5 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | BIG PARTY G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 3 | 1.9 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | FULL OF BEAUTY C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 1 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | COUNTRY STAR K H Chan · J Size | K H Chan | J Size | 7 | 35.0 | 2-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN | 32.4% | 3.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | BIG PARTY | 30.2% | 3.31 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | THANKS FOREVER | 15.1% | 6.63 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | MR STUNNING | 7.2% | 13.85 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | FULL OF BEAUTY | 6.8% | 14.75 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 5.4% | 18.52 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | COUNTRY STAR | 3.0% | 33.60 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 35.5
PLACE
1 12
2 50
4 11.5
QUINELLA
1,4 69.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 81.5
1,4 22
2,4 97
TIERCE
1,4,2 635
TRIO
1,2,4 198
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 467
QUARTET
1,4,2,6 5,422
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 20
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
10/1 606
10/4 137.5