Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-03-08

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-08 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CHARGE ON, ridden by K C Leung and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with INCANTO PREPARED second and KING'S RACE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite CIRCUIT HASSLER finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.22.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 CHARGE ON Closed strongly H-/B1 1.22.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · D J Hall 13 15.0 SH
2 11 INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size 3 4.9 SH
3 1 KING'S RACE B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 4 4.5 3/4
4 13 VITAL SPRING Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 9.4 1-1/2
5 2 LORIZ B-/CP2/TT1 C Schofield · P F Yiu 10 19.0 1-3/4
6 3 CIRCUIT HASSLER B/H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 1 3.1 1-3/4
7 12 YES WE CAN Closed strongly CP-/XB-/TT N Callan · T P Yung 2 20.0 2-1/4
8 5 MY WINNER Closed strongly B Z Purton · R Gibson 14 10.0 3-1/2
9 9 READY CONQUEROR B1 G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 8 29.0 4-1/4
10 14 OLD HAVANA Closed strongly H N Wong · D E Ferraris 11 272.0 4-1/2
11 6 KA FORTUNE H- M L Yeung · L Ho 6 35.0 5-1/4
12 8 DRAGON PRIDE C Wong · A T Millard 12 125.0 5-1/2
13 4 BREEDERS' SKY Led early B K Teetan · C W Chang 9 44.0 6-3/4
14 7 CENTENARY IBIS CP1/XB1 K H Chan · D J Whyte 5 297.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARGE ON2. INCANTO PREPARED+0.1L3. KING'S RACE+0.75L4. VITAL SPRING+1.5L5. LORIZ+1.75L6. CIRCUIT HASSLER+1.75L7. YES WE CAN+2.25L8. MY WINNER+3.5L9. READY CONQUEROR+4.25L10. OLD HAVANA+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick INCANTO PREPARED (23.0%) finished 2nd — the winner CHARGE ON was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 INCANTO PREPARED 23.0% 4.34 2
2 1 KING'S RACE 17.1% 5.86 3
3 3 CIRCUIT HASSLER 14.2% 7.05 6
4 2 LORIZ 9.3% 10.75 5
5 5 MY WINNER 7.5% 13.38 8
6 13 VITAL SPRING 6.5% 15.28 4
7 4 BREEDERS' SKY 5.2% 19.22 13
8 8 DRAGON PRIDE 4.6% 21.84 12
9 9 READY CONQUEROR 3.5% 28.76 9
10 6 KA FORTUNE 2.6% 38.32 11
11 10 CHARGE ON 2.5% 40.57 1
12 12 YES WE CAN 2.4% 40.98 7
13 14 OLD HAVANA 1.0% 97.27 10
14 7 CENTENARY IBIS 0.6% 168.62 14
INCANTO PREPAREDKING'S RACECIRCUIT HASSLERLORIZMY WINNERVITAL SPRINGBREEDERS' SKYDRAGON PRIDEREADY CONQUERORKA FORTUNECHARGE ON — wonYES WE CANOLD HAVANACENTENARY IBIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 158.5

PLACE

1 17.5

10 37.5

11 19

QUINELLA

10,11 447

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 120.5

1,11 46.5

10,11 149

TIERCE

10,11,1 4,301

TRIO

1,10,11 727

FIRST 4

1,10,11,13 703

QUARTET

10,11,1,13 20,776

2ND DOUBLE

3/10 1,800.5

3/11 53

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 38