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Sha Tin · 2020-03-08

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with JADE PHOENIX second and SMART CHARADE third. The 2.7 favourite JUDY'S STAR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 1.09.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 11 44.0 N
2 5 JADE PHOENIX B1 J Moreira · F C Lor 8 3.5 N
3 2 SMART CHARADE B/H2/TT N Callan · W Y So 3 17.0 1
4 7 GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP1 H W Lai · P F Yiu 1 19.0 1-1/4
5 4 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/XB/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 10 5.8 1-1/4
6 10 JUDY'S STAR B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 7 2.7 1-1/2
7 12 THE ABRAXAS B2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 2 14.0 1-1/2
8 11 BREEZE OF SPRING H-/CP G van Niekerk · L Ho 9 12.0 2-1/2
9 3 ALLOY STAR M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 21.0 4-1/4
10 1 SPEED FORCE B/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 6 229.0 8-3/4
11 9 BRILLIANT H/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 4 16.0 22
0 SUPREME WITNESS C Y Ho · A S Cruz
8 WHAT A STORM CP1 M F Poon · C H Yip 12 239.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE2. JADE PHOENIX+0.05L3. SMART CHARADE+1L4. GOOD LUCK FRIEND+1.25L5. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+1.25L6. JUDY'S STAR+1.5L7. THE ABRAXAS+1.5L8. BREEZE OF SPRING+2.5L9. ALLOY STAR+4.25L10. SPEED FORCE+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick JADE PHOENIX (27.6%) finished 2nd — the winner PRESIDENT'S CHOICE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 JADE PHOENIX 27.6% 3.63 2
2 4 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 20.5% 4.87 5
3 10 JUDY'S STAR 12.5% 7.99 6
4 3 ALLOY STAR 8.4% 11.93 9
5 11 BREEZE OF SPRING 7.8% 12.84 8
6 2 SMART CHARADE 5.2% 19.09 3
7 9 BRILLIANT 5.1% 19.70 11
8 7 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 4.4% 22.98 4
9 6 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 4.3% 23.28 1
10 12 THE ABRAXAS 3.1% 32.01 7
11 1 SPEED FORCE 1.1% 87.83 10
JADE PHOENIXEIGHT TRIGRAMSJUDY'S STARALLOY STARBREEZE OF SPRINGSMART CHARADEBRILLIANTGOOD LUCK FRIENDPRESIDENT'S CHOICE — wonTHE ABRAXASSPEED FORCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 446

PLACE

2 48.5

5 14

6 98.5

QUINELLA

5,6 739

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 113.5

2,6 1,016

5,6 208

TIERCE

6,5,2 24,864

TRIO

2,5,6 3,472

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 11,323

QUARTET

6,5,2,7 408,428

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/2,5,6 61,572

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 39

4TH DOUBLE

1/5 18.5

1/6 1,053.5