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Sha Tin · 2020-05-24

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ARMOR STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with CIRCUIT HASSLER second and SHANGHAI DRAGON third. The winner led throughout. The 3.6 favourite SO WE JOY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ARMOR STAR Wire to wire H- 1.21.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 11 8.1 SH
2 4 CIRCUIT HASSLER Closed strongly B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 13 4.0 SH
3 13 SHANGHAI DRAGON B M Chadwick · T P Yung 1 12.0 1-3/4
4 2 LEAP OF FAITH Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 2 4.0 2
5 6 SO WE JOY Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · J Moore 6 3.6 3-3/4
6 8 NOBLE DESIRE Closed strongly B-/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 16.0 4
7 5 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly CP1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 202.0 4-3/4
8 14 WITNESS HUNTER Closed strongly SR/CP1 M F Poon · K H Ting 5 18.0 5
9 12 MOON PEAKS Closed strongly B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 4 29.0 5-3/4
10 10 TAILOR MADE B M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 14.0 6-3/4
11 1 LUCKY PUZZLE B Shinn · Y S Tsui 10 138.0 7-3/4
12 7 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B1 T H So · D J Hall 14 339.0 8
13 9 TELECOM MISSILE N Callan · C H Yip 12 174.0 8-1/4
14 11 WINS ALL CP K C Leung · R Gibson 9 382.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ARMOR STAR2. CIRCUIT HASSLER+0.1L3. SHANGHAI DRAGON+1.75L4. LEAP OF FAITH+2L5. SO WE JOY+3.75L6. NOBLE DESIRE+4L7. SEAWEED FORTUNE+4.75L8. WITNESS HUNTER+5L9. MOON PEAKS+5.75L10. TAILOR MADE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LEAP OF FAITH (28.8%) finished 4th — the winner ARMOR STAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LEAP OF FAITH 28.8% 3.48 4
2 3 ARMOR STAR 15.8% 6.32 1
3 6 SO WE JOY 10.9% 9.15 5
4 14 WITNESS HUNTER 9.1% 11.03 8
5 4 CIRCUIT HASSLER 8.1% 12.36 2
6 8 NOBLE DESIRE 7.8% 12.86 6
7 5 SEAWEED FORTUNE 6.5% 15.30 7
8 13 SHANGHAI DRAGON 4.9% 20.56 3
9 7 SPARKY STAR 2.4% 42.17 12
10 10 TAILOR MADE 1.7% 58.41 10
11 9 TELECOM MISSILE 1.4% 71.43 13
12 1 LUCKY PUZZLE 1.0% 96.04 11
13 12 MOON PEAKS 1.0% 99.48 9
14 11 WINS ALL 0.6% 162.29 14
LEAP OF FAITHARMOR STAR — wonSO WE JOYWITNESS HUNTERCIRCUIT HASSLERNOBLE DESIRESEAWEED FORTUNESHANGHAI DRAGONSPARKY STARTAILOR MADETELECOM MISSILELUCKY PUZZLEMOON PEAKSWINS ALL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 81.5

PLACE

3 25.5

4 15

13 31.5

QUINELLA

3,4 160

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 66.5

3,13 153.5

4,13 90.5

TIERCE

3,4,13 3,609

TRIO

3,4,13 734

FIRST 4

2,3,4,13 515

QUARTET

3,4,13,2 12,547

1ST DOUBLE

7/3 186

7/4 55

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 22.5