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Sha Tin · 2020-05-24

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-24 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING CHOCOLATE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 5-1/4, with FLYING VICTORY second and STREET SCREAM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BEAUTY SMILE finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.21.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 AMAZING CHOCOLATE Closed strongly B 1.21.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 9 6.8 5-1/4
2 9 FLYING VICTORY Closed strongly H/TT C Schofield · F C Lor 8 39.0 5-1/4
3 13 STREET SCREAM Closed strongly T H So · D J Hall 13 321.0 5-1/2
4 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 5 8.9 5-3/4
5 11 MERRYGOWIN B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 1 87.0 5-3/4
6 6 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 26.0 6
7 5 HELLO BEAUTY Led early B/TT C L Chau · J Moore 12 4.7 7
8 7 ULTIMATE GLORY V B Shinn · K L Man 7 27.0 7-1/4
9 4 PRIME MINISTER C Y Ho · P F Yiu 2 19.0 7-3/4
10 10 HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT A Hamelin · K W Lui 4 4.9 9-3/4
11 3 BEAUTY SMILE TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 3.6 15-1/4
12 8 LUMEN BABA SR/XB H N Wong · D J Whyte 10 411.0 17-1/2
2 REGENCY BO BO B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 10.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING CHOCOLATE2. FLYING VICTORY+5.25L3. STREET SCREAM+5.5L4. BEAUTY SPIRIT+5.75L5. MERRYGOWIN+5.75L6. GLORIOUS LOVER+6L7. HELLO BEAUTY+7L8. ULTIMATE GLORY+7.25L9. PRIME MINISTER+7.75L10. HAPPY ALUMNI+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY SMILE (30.2%) finished 11th — the winner AMAZING CHOCOLATE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY SMILE 30.2% 3.31 11
2 10 HAPPY ALUMNI 15.8% 6.32 10
3 5 HELLO BEAUTY 13.4% 7.48 7
4 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT 10.4% 9.65 4
5 9 FLYING VICTORY 7.3% 13.67 2
6 12 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 6.4% 15.51 1
7 4 PRIME MINISTER 5.9% 17.05 9
8 7 ULTIMATE GLORY 3.1% 31.88 8
9 6 GLORIOUS LOVER 2.9% 34.93 6
10 11 MERRYGOWIN 2.6% 38.41 5
11 8 LUMEN BABA 1.3% 78.59 12
12 13 STREET SCREAM 0.7% 137.36 3
BEAUTY SMILEHAPPY ALUMNIHELLO BEAUTYBEAUTY SPIRITFLYING VICTORYAMAZING CHOCOLATE — wonPRIME MINISTERULTIMATE GLORYGLORIOUS LOVERMERRYGOWINLUMEN BABASTREET SCREAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 68.5

PLACE

9 80.5

12 25

13 441

QUINELLA

9,12 1,749.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,12 425.5

9,13 6,085.5

12,13 2,486

TIERCE

12,9,13 153,204

TRIO

9,12,13 62,312

FIRST 4

1,9,12,13 104,631

QUARTET

12,9,13,1 1,987,994

3 PICK 1

A2 22

A3

A1

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

10/9 391

10/12 938.5