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Sha Tin · 2020-05-24

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 AMAZING CHOCOLATE Closed strongly B 1.21.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 9 6.8 5-1/4
2 0 FLYING VICTORY Closed strongly H/TT C Schofield · F C Lor 8 39.0 5-1/4
3 0 STREET SCREAM Closed strongly T H So · D J Hall 13 321.0 5-1/2
4 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 5 8.9 5-3/4
5 0 MERRYGOWIN B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 1 87.0 5-3/4
6 0 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 26.0 6
7 0 HELLO BEAUTY Led early B/TT C L Chau · J Moore 12 4.7 7
8 0 ULTIMATE GLORY V B Shinn · K L Man 7 27.0 7-1/4
9 0 PRIME MINISTER C Y Ho · P F Yiu 2 19.0 7-3/4
10 0 HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT A Hamelin · K W Lui 4 4.9 9-3/4
11 0 BEAUTY SMILE TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 3.6 15-1/4
12 0 LUMEN BABA SR/XB H N Wong · D J Whyte 10 411.0 17-1/2
— 0 REGENCY BO BO B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 10.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-24 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING CHOCOLATE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 5-1/4, with FLYING VICTORY second and STREET SCREAM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BEAUTY SMILE finished 11th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING CHOCOLATE—2. FLYING VICTORY+5.25L3. STREET SCREAM+5.5L4. BEAUTY SPIRIT+5.75L5. MERRYGOWIN+5.75L6. GLORIOUS LOVER+6L7. HELLO BEAUTY+7L8. ULTIMATE GLORY+7.25L9. PRIME MINISTER+7.75L10. HAPPY ALUMNI+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY SMILE (30.2%) finished 11th — the winner AMAZING CHOCOLATE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY SMILE 30.2% 3.31 11
2 0 HAPPY ALUMNI 15.8% 6.32 10
3 0 HELLO BEAUTY 13.4% 7.48 7
4 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT 10.4% 9.65 4
5 0 FLYING VICTORY 7.3% 13.67 2
6 0 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 6.4% 15.51 1
7 0 PRIME MINISTER 5.9% 17.05 9
8 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 3.1% 31.88 8
9 0 GLORIOUS LOVER 2.9% 34.93 6
10 0 MERRYGOWIN 2.6% 38.41 5
11 0 LUMEN BABA 1.3% 78.59 12
12 0 STREET SCREAM 0.7% 137.36 3
BEAUTY SMILEHAPPY ALUMNIHELLO BEAUTYBEAUTY SPIRITFLYING VICTORYAMAZING CHOCOLATE — wonPRIME MINISTERULTIMATE GLORYGLORIOUS LOVERMERRYGOWINLUMEN BABASTREET SCREAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 68.5

PLACE

9 80.5

12 25

13 441

QUINELLA

9,12 1,749.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,12 425.5

9,13 6,085.5

12,13 2,486

TIERCE

12,9,13 153,204

TRIO

9,12,13 62,312

FIRST 4

1,9,12,13 104,631

QUARTET

12,9,13,1 1,987,994

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 22

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

10/9 391

10/12 938.5