Sha Tin · 2020-05-24
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-24 was Group 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THANKS FOREVER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by N, with HOT KING PRAWN second and BIG PARTY third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | THANKS FOREVER B 1.08.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 2 | 2.3 | N |
| 2 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 4.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | BIG PARTY CP- C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 8 | 9.1 | N |
| 4 | 5 | FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 3 | 6.6 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | JOLLY BANNER B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 5 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER B A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 6 | 9.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | DRAGON GENERAL TT K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 76.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | WALDORF B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN | 32.0% | 3.13 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | THANKS FOREVER | 29.1% | 3.44 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | WALDORF | 13.3% | 7.53 | 8 |
| 4 | 4 | BIG PARTY | 7.4% | 13.60 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER | 5.5% | 18.06 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | FAT TURTLE | 5.1% | 19.53 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | JOLLY BANNER | 4.1% | 24.13 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | DRAGON GENERAL | 3.5% | 28.49 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 23
PLACE
1 14.5
2 13
4 27
QUINELLA
1,2 43.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 20.5
1,4 59
2,4 35
TIERCE
2,1,4 310
TRIO
1,2,4 100
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 111
QUARTET
2,1,4,5 1,373
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
10/1 20
10/2 64.5