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Sha Tin · 2020-05-24

Race 11

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BAND OF BROTHERS Closed strongly B1 1.21.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P O'Sullivan 9 12.0 NOSE
2 0 GLORIOUS SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 3.8 NOSE
3 0 HAPPY FUN B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 4.7 1/2
4 0 DAN CONTROL Closed strongly H-/XB C Wong · J Moore 13 80.0 3/4
5 0 KING OPIE Closed strongly V V Borges · F C Lor 7 143.0 1
6 0 GOOD STANDING B-/XB-/TT2 C L Chau · J Moore 11 12.0 2-1/2
7 0 BEAUTY RUSH E C Y Ho · J Size 5 10.0 2-3/4
8 0 WILL POWER XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 1 4.1 3-1/4
9 0 SUNNY BOY B/TT M L Yeung · J Moore 12 48.0 3-1/2
10 0 TRANSCENDENT Closed strongly TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 8 8.7 4
11 0 STYLING CITY Led early B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 3 203.0 4-1/2
12 0 GREEN LUCK Closed strongly M F Poon · C Fownes 10 51.0 4-3/4
13 0 WATER DIVINER B/H/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui 4 17.0 5
— 0 CIRCUIT THREE C Schofield · A S Cruz — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-24 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BAND OF BROTHERS, ridden by N Callan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by NOSE, with GLORIOUS SPECTRUM second and HAPPY FUN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite GLORIOUS SPECTRUM finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BAND OF BROTHERS—2. GLORIOUS SPECTRUM+0.05L3. HAPPY FUN+0.5L4. DAN CONTROL+0.75L5. KING OPIE+1L6. GOOD STANDING+2.5L7. BEAUTY RUSH+2.75L8. WILL POWER+3.25L9. SUNNY BOY+3.5L10. TRANSCENDENT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WILL POWER (23.3%) finished 8th — the winner BAND OF BROTHERS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 WILL POWER 23.3% 4.29 8
2 0 HAPPY FUN 20.3% 4.93 3
3 0 GLORIOUS SPECTRUM 13.4% 7.46 2
4 0 TRANSCENDENT 10.6% 9.45 10
5 0 BAND OF BROTHERS 9.8% 10.17 1
6 0 DAN CONTROL 5.6% 17.76 4
7 0 BEAUTY RUSH 4.6% 21.92 7
8 0 GOOD STANDING 3.0% 33.72 6
9 0 WATER DIVINER 2.7% 36.62 13
10 0 GREEN LUCK 2.4% 42.36 12
11 0 SUNNY BOY 1.9% 52.84 9
12 0 KING OPIE 1.2% 82.73 5
13 0 STYLING CITY 1.2% 83.01 11
WILL POWERHAPPY FUNGLORIOUS SPECTRUMTRANSCENDENTBAND OF BROTHERS — wonDAN CONTROLBEAUTY RUSHGOOD STANDINGWATER DIVINERGREEN LUCKSUNNY BOYKING OPIESTYLING CITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 125.5

PLACE

2 17

3 16

5 32

QUINELLA

2,5 251.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 41

2,5 87.5

3,5 76

TIERCE

5,2,3 1,994

TRIO

2,3,5 218

FIRST 4

2,3,5,10 3,097

QUARTET

5,2,3,10 83,729

10TH DOUBLE

12/2 37

12/5 1,107

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 33.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

9,12,13/2,3,5 3,081,791

SIX UP

6,8/5,7,11/1,5/8,10/9,12/2,5 8,087

8/5,7/1/10/12/5 257,288

2 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

10/12/2 715

10/12/5 10,503