Sha Tin · 2020-05-24
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-24 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. EXULTANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with CHEFANO second and FURORE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT Closed strongly XB/TT 2.26.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 7 | 1.5 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | CHEFANO Closed strongly CP M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 6 | 20.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | FURORE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 4.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | SAVVY NINE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 2 | 5.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | HELENE CHARISMA B/TT A Hamelin · J Moore | A Hamelin | J Moore | 4 | 19.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | EAGLE WAY Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 1 | 26.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | TIME WARP Led early TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 3 | 36.0 | 34 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | SAVVY NINE | 16.9% | 5.91 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | FURORE | 15.9% | 6.28 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | CHEFANO | 8.1% | 12.31 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | TIME WARP | 5.7% | 17.69 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | HELENE CHARISMA | 3.9% | 25.90 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | EAGLE WAY | 2.0% | 50.95 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 15
PLACE
1 10.1
2 13
5 30
QUINELLA
1,5 87
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 15.5
1,5 30
2,5 55
TIERCE
1,5,2 248
TRIO
1,2,5 66
FIRST 4
1,2,5,7 55
QUARTET
1,5,2,7 749
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,11>5,7/1,2,5 37,546
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 15
7TH DOUBLE
5,7/1 41
5,7/5 79