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Sha Tin · 2020-06-27

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WATER DIVINER Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.20.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H N Wong · K W Lui 7 44.0 1/2
2 0 GOOD STANDING Closed strongly TT- K C Leung · J Moore 6 26.0 1/2
3 0 YOUNG LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 1 18.0 3/4
4 0 MONGOLIAN KING Closed strongly B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 3 7.8 3/4
5 0 BEAUTY APPLAUSE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · J Size 9 10.0 1-3/4
6 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT K H Chan · W Y So 13 97.0 2
7 0 BEAUTY RUSH E C Schofield · J Size 11 20.0 2
8 0 CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 12 38.0 2-3/4
9 0 BUDDIES Led early C Wong · J Moore 14 8.4 3
10 0 MORETHANLUCKY B M L Yeung · F C Lor 5 38.0 3-3/4
11 0 HAPPY FUN B-/V1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 5.5 4-1/4
12 0 CIRCUIT THREE B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 4.0 5-1/2
13 0 DAN CONTROL XB C Y Ho · J Moore 4 6.1 5-3/4
14 0 KING OPIE V V Borges · F C Lor 8 20.0 6

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-27 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WATER DIVINER, ridden by H N Wong and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with GOOD STANDING second and YOUNG LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite CIRCUIT THREE finished 12th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WATER DIVINER—2. GOOD STANDING+0.5L3. YOUNG LEGEND+0.75L4. MONGOLIAN KING+0.75L5. BEAUTY APPLAUSE+1.75L6. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+2L7. BEAUTY RUSH+2L8. CALIFORNIA WHIP+2.75L9. BUDDIES+3L10. MORETHANLUCKY+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY APPLAUSE (16.9%) finished 5th — the winner WATER DIVINER was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 16.9% 5.92 5
2 0 CIRCUIT THREE 15.3% 6.54 12
3 0 BUDDIES 12.0% 8.32 9
4 0 HAPPY FUN 9.1% 10.97 11
5 0 MONGOLIAN KING 8.6% 11.57 4
6 0 DAN CONTROL 6.8% 14.79 13
7 0 YOUNG LEGEND 6.3% 15.82 3
8 0 BEAUTY RUSH 4.7% 21.13 7
9 0 MORETHANLUCKY 4.4% 22.73 10
10 0 KING OPIE 4.2% 24.01 14
11 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 3.6% 28.00 6
12 0 CALIFORNIA WHIP 3.5% 28.31 8
13 0 WATER DIVINER 2.4% 41.70 1
14 0 GOOD STANDING 2.1% 46.85 2
BEAUTY APPLAUSECIRCUIT THREEBUDDIESHAPPY FUNMONGOLIAN KINGDAN CONTROLYOUNG LEGENDBEAUTY RUSHMORETHANLUCKYKING OPIEINVINCIBLE MISSILECALIFORNIA WHIPWATER DIVINER — wonGOOD STANDING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 443

PLACE

4 76

12 109

14 45.5

QUINELLA

4,12 7,768.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,12 1,712.5

4,14 740.5

12,14 672

TIERCE

12,4,14 225,820

TRIO

4,12,14 25,697

FIRST 4

2,4,12,14 47,020

QUARTET

12,4,14,2 1,543,207

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 25.5

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

12,13,14/4,12,14 2,466,183

9TH DOUBLE

12/4 756.5

12/12 8,229

SIX UP

3/3/2/8/12/12 2,504,125

3,6/3,4/2,3/8,10/12,14/4,12 73,505

2 [K Teetan] —

TREBLE

8/12/4 7,740

8/12/12 71,360