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Sha Tin · 2020-06-27

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WINSTON'S LAD B 1.08.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 4.4 3/4
2 0 BRIGHT KID B/XB Z Purton · W Y So 9 4.5 3/4
3 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H-/V-/B2 B Shinn · D J Hall 11 6.2 1-1/2
4 0 FARM BUMPER J Moreira · K L Man 14 7.6 4-3/4
5 0 GLENEALY GENERALS B A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 7.0 5-1/4
6 0 GREAT SON V/TT C Wong · P O'Sullivan 4 22.0 6-1/2
7 0 ALL JOYFUL M L Yeung · T P Yung 13 13.0 6-3/4
8 0 DIAMOND RHYME CP1 K H Chan · F C Lor 1 21.0 7
9 0 DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 10 59.0 7-1/2
10 0 GO GOAL TOBY H N Wong · K H Ting 6 213.0 8-3/4
11 0 GALLANT CROWN TT C Schofield · A T Millard 8 103.0 10-1/2
12 0 WINNING GENGHIS H T Mo · Y S Tsui 12 263.0 10-1/2
13 0 SPLENDID KING B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 94.0 11-3/4
14 0 WOOD ON FIRE H/V N Callan · L Ho 2 8.4 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINSTON'S LAD, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with BRIGHT KID second and SUMSTREETSUMWHERE third. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINSTON'S LAD—2. BRIGHT KID+0.75L3. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+1.5L4. FARM BUMPER+4.75L5. GLENEALY GENERALS+5.25L6. GREAT SON+6.5L7. ALL JOYFUL+6.75L8. DIAMOND RHYME+7L9. DIAMOND PEGASUS+7.5L10. GO GOAL TOBY+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BRIGHT KID (20.1%) finished 2nd — the winner WINSTON'S LAD was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BRIGHT KID 20.1% 4.97 2
2 0 DIAMOND RHYME 13.1% 7.66 8
3 0 GREAT SON 11.9% 8.38 6
4 0 FARM BUMPER 11.1% 9.04 4
5 0 WINSTON'S LAD 8.0% 12.52 1
6 0 WOOD ON FIRE 7.4% 13.60 14
7 0 GLENEALY GENERALS 6.8% 14.67 5
8 0 SPLENDID KING 4.9% 20.27 13
9 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 4.8% 21.04 3
10 0 WINNING GENGHIS 3.5% 28.86 12
11 0 ALL JOYFUL 3.4% 29.59 7
12 0 DIAMOND PEGASUS 2.3% 43.15 9
13 0 GALLANT CROWN 1.8% 56.50 11
14 0 GO GOAL TOBY 1.0% 96.16 10
BRIGHT KIDDIAMOND RHYMEGREAT SONFARM BUMPERWINSTON'S LAD — wonWOOD ON FIREGLENEALY GENERALSSPLENDID KINGSUMSTREETSUMWHEREWINNING GENGHISALL JOYFULDIAMOND PEGASUSGALLANT CROWNGO GOAL TOBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 44

PLACE

2 16.5

9 18.5

11 21

QUINELLA

2,9 133

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 49.5

2,11 67

9,11 61.5

TIERCE

9,2,11 1,536

TRIO

2,9,11 241

FIRST 4

2,9,11,13 600

QUARTET

9,2,11,13 12,343

1ST DOUBLE

2/2 44.5

2/9 522.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 20

A1 —

A3 —