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Sha Tin · 2020-06-27

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ALCARI Closed strongly B 1.20.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 27.0 1
2 0 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 2 4.9 1
3 0 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H N Wong · Y S Tsui 1 14.0 1-1/2
4 0 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size 14 12.0 1-3/4
5 0 PRIVATE ROCKET CP/XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 4 9.3 2-1/4
6 0 THE HULK V- C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 27.0 2-1/2
7 0 CRAIG'S STAR B V Borges · C S Shum 5 3.9 3
8 0 WIN WIN Closed strongly B H T Mo · T P Yung 13 10.0 3-3/4
9 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT Closed strongly CP/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 3 9.2 5-1/2
10 0 HELLO BEAUTY B/TT K H Chan · J Moore 8 13.0 9-1/4
11 0 KASI FARASI H-/TT- Z Purton · C H Yip 9 8.8 9-1/4
12 0 TURIN REDSTAR V K C Leung · L Ho 7 53.0 12-1/2
13 0 COBY OPPA T H So · D J Hall 10 212.0 15
14 0 FLYING ON THE TURF Led early B/TT C Wong · K H Ting 6 66.0 23
— 0 XANTHUS M L Yeung · R Gibson — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ALCARI, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with JOYFUL HEART second and GREAT TREASURE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite CRAIG'S STAR finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALCARI—2. JOYFUL HEART+1L3. GREAT TREASURE+1.5L4. CHAIRMAN LO+1.75L5. PRIVATE ROCKET+2.25L6. THE HULK+2.5L7. CRAIG'S STAR+3L8. WIN WIN+3.75L9. BEAUTY SPIRIT+5.5L10. HELLO BEAUTY+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick JOYFUL HEART (16.7%) finished 2nd — the winner ALCARI was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JOYFUL HEART 16.7% 6.00 2
2 0 PRIVATE ROCKET 11.0% 9.11 5
3 0 KASI FARASI 10.7% 9.36 11
4 0 CHAIRMAN LO 9.1% 11.00 4
5 0 CRAIG'S STAR 8.6% 11.67 7
6 0 FLYING ON THE TURF 8.1% 12.32 14
7 0 HELLO BEAUTY 7.7% 13.01 10
8 0 WIN WIN 6.2% 16.01 8
9 0 THE HULK 5.0% 19.90 6
10 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT 4.4% 22.56 9
11 0 GREAT TREASURE 4.3% 23.49 3
12 0 TURIN REDSTAR 4.0% 25.10 12
13 0 ALCARI 2.7% 37.37 1
14 0 COBY OPPA 1.6% 62.19 13
JOYFUL HEARTPRIVATE ROCKETKASI FARASICHAIRMAN LOCRAIG'S STARFLYING ON THE TURFHELLO BEAUTYWIN WINTHE HULKBEAUTY SPIRITGREAT TREASURETURIN REDSTARALCARI — wonCOBY OPPA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 275.5

PLACE

12 78.5

13 42.5

14 15.5

QUINELLA

12,14 929.5

QUINELLA PLACE

12,13 564.5

12,14 282.5

13,14 128

TIERCE

12,14,13 17,477

TRIO

12,13,14 3,285

FIRST 4

11,12,13,14 2,505

QUARTET

12,14,13,11 69,290

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 23.5

A1 —

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

8/12 1,646.5

8/14 65