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Sha Tin · 2020-06-27

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ALCARI, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with JOYFUL HEART second and GREAT TREASURE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite CRAIG'S STAR finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.20.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 ALCARI Closed strongly B 1.20.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 27.0 1
2 14 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 2 4.9 1
3 13 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H N Wong · Y S Tsui 1 14.0 1-1/2
4 11 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size 14 12.0 1-3/4
5 8 PRIVATE ROCKET CP/XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 4 9.3 2-1/4
6 2 THE HULK V- C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 27.0 2-1/2
7 6 CRAIG'S STAR B V Borges · C S Shum 5 3.9 3
8 5 WIN WIN Closed strongly B H T Mo · T P Yung 13 10.0 3-3/4
9 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT Closed strongly CP/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 3 9.2 5-1/2
10 4 HELLO BEAUTY B/TT K H Chan · J Moore 8 13.0 9-1/4
11 9 KASI FARASI H-/TT- Z Purton · C H Yip 9 8.8 9-1/4
12 3 TURIN REDSTAR V K C Leung · L Ho 7 53.0 12-1/2
13 10 COBY OPPA T H So · D J Hall 10 212.0 15
14 7 FLYING ON THE TURF Led early B/TT C Wong · K H Ting 6 66.0 23
0 XANTHUS M L Yeung · R Gibson

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALCARI2. JOYFUL HEART+1L3. GREAT TREASURE+1.5L4. CHAIRMAN LO+1.75L5. PRIVATE ROCKET+2.25L6. THE HULK+2.5L7. CRAIG'S STAR+3L8. WIN WIN+3.75L9. BEAUTY SPIRIT+5.5L10. HELLO BEAUTY+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick JOYFUL HEART (16.7%) finished 2nd — the winner ALCARI was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 JOYFUL HEART 16.7% 6.00 2
2 8 PRIVATE ROCKET 11.0% 9.11 5
3 9 KASI FARASI 10.7% 9.36 11
4 11 CHAIRMAN LO 9.1% 11.00 4
5 6 CRAIG'S STAR 8.6% 11.67 7
6 7 FLYING ON THE TURF 8.1% 12.32 14
7 4 HELLO BEAUTY 7.7% 13.01 10
8 5 WIN WIN 6.2% 16.01 8
9 2 THE HULK 5.0% 19.90 6
10 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT 4.4% 22.56 9
11 13 GREAT TREASURE 4.3% 23.49 3
12 3 TURIN REDSTAR 4.0% 25.10 12
13 12 ALCARI 2.7% 37.37 1
14 10 COBY OPPA 1.6% 62.19 13
JOYFUL HEARTPRIVATE ROCKETKASI FARASICHAIRMAN LOCRAIG'S STARFLYING ON THE TURFHELLO BEAUTYWIN WINTHE HULKBEAUTY SPIRITGREAT TREASURETURIN REDSTARALCARI — wonCOBY OPPA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 275.5

PLACE

12 78.5

13 42.5

14 15.5

QUINELLA

12,14 929.5

QUINELLA PLACE

12,13 564.5

12,14 282.5

13,14 128

TIERCE

12,14,13 17,477

TRIO

12,13,14 3,285

FIRST 4

11,12,13,14 2,505

QUARTET

12,14,13,11 69,290

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 23.5

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

8/12 1,646.5

8/14 65