Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-10-01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PEGASUS GLORY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with GINTOKI second and WHISKEY NEAT third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 PEGASUS GLORY 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 2 1.7 1-1/4
2 8 GINTOKI B A Badel · T P Yung 1 12.0 1-1/4
3 3 WHISKEY NEAT H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 5.4 1-1/2
4 6 RUN RUN GOOD Z Purton · K L Man 6 34.0 3
5 5 MARVELOUS FANS E1 J Moreira · J Size 4 6.4 3
6 4 HURRICANE KUNDE TT1 K Teetan · C H Yip 7 46.0 3-1/4
7 2 SPRINT FORWARD B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 9 9.6 7
8 7 FRESH POWER B/TT C Schofield · Y S Tsui 3 20.0 9-3/4
9 9 EURO LAGO H-/CP/E1 H T Mo · C W Chang 5 40.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PEGASUS GLORY—2. GINTOKI+1.25L3. WHISKEY NEAT+1.5L4. RUN RUN GOOD+3L5. MARVELOUS FANS+3L6. HURRICANE KUNDE+3.25L7. SPRINT FORWARD+7L8. FRESH POWER+9.75L9. EURO LAGO+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MARVELOUS FANS (29.4%) finished 5th — the winner PEGASUS GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MARVELOUS FANS 29.4% 3.40 5
2 1 PEGASUS GLORY 22.0% 4.54 1
3 6 RUN RUN GOOD 11.3% 8.86 4
4 8 GINTOKI 11.2% 8.92 2
5 3 WHISKEY NEAT 9.3% 10.71 3
6 4 HURRICANE KUNDE 6.3% 15.89 6
7 2 SPRINT FORWARD 6.3% 15.94 7
8 7 FRESH POWER 2.7% 37.72 8
9 9 EURO LAGO 1.6% 63.89 9
MARVELOUS FANSPEGASUS GLORY — wonRUN RUN GOODGINTOKIWHISKEY NEATHURRICANE KUNDESPRINT FORWARDFRESH POWEREURO LAGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 17.5

PLACE

1 11.5

3 14

8 28

QUINELLA

1,8 96

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 19.5

1,8 38.5

3,8 71.5

FORECAST

1,8 143

TIERCE

1,8,3 437

TRIO

1,3,8 103

FIRST 4

1,3,6,8 442

QUARTET

1,8,3,6 4,428

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13.5

A2 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99