Sha Tin · 2020-10-01

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B 8 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-01 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. LONDON HALL, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with VINCY second and GOD OF DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite VINCY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.47.65

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	LONDON HALL Closed strongly B 1.47.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Hall	A Badel	D J Hall	1	125 lb	8.4	N
2	5	VINCY Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte	Z Purton	D J Whyte	4	123 lb	3.0	N
3	4	GOD OF DRAGON H/XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz	C Y Ho	A S Cruz	8	123 lb	4.2	N
4	6	XIANG BAI QI B C L Chau · D E Ferraris	C L Chau	D E Ferraris	2	114 lb	14.0	1-1/4
5	8	MORE THAN A HORSE Closed strongly B/SR A Hamelin · D J Whyte	A Hamelin	D J Whyte	7	118 lb	10.0	2-1/4
6	1	HAPPY SEBRING Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	3	130 lb	5.4	2-1/2
7	7	TANGMERE TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	6	120 lb	9.3	3-3/4
8	3	DIVINE UNICORN Led early TT V Borges · W Y So	V Borges	W Y So	5	123 lb	15.0	9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick HAPPY SEBRING (25.3%) finished 6th — the winner LONDON HALL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	HAPPY SEBRING	25.3%	3.95	6	5.4
2	5	VINCY	18.7%	5.35	2	3.0
3	7	TANGMERE	17.7%	5.65	7	9.3
4	4	GOD OF DRAGON	12.4%	8.05	3	4.2
5	2	LONDON HALL	8.3%	12.12	1	8.4
6	6	XIANG BAI QI	7.4%	13.60	4	14.0
7	3	DIVINE UNICORN	5.5%	18.12	8	15.0
8	8	MORE THAN A HORSE	4.7%	21.09	5	10.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 84.5

PLACE

2 21.5

4 14.5

5 14

QUINELLA

2,5 145.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 57

2,5 51

4,5 29.5

FORECAST

2,5 325

TIERCE

2,5,4 1,393

TRIO

2,4,5 147

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 386

QUARTET

2,5,4,6 10,362

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/2 191

1/5 12.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 36

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