Sha Tin · 2020-10-01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-01 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LIGHT MY DAY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by C H Yip, won by 1, with JIMMU second and NATURAL STORM third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite NATURAL STORM finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LIGHT MY DAY Wire to wire CP1/TT 1.34.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | JIMMU Closed strongly CP-/SR2 J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 9 | 6.9 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 2 | 3.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | FAST PACE H/P A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 3 | 9.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | STARSHIP Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 7.4 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | GOOD DAYS B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 4.1 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | INDIGENOUS STAR TT M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 1 | 27.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | SALTO OLIMPICO B H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 4 | 47.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | GOOD DAYS | 22.9% | 4.36 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | NATURAL STORM | 22.0% | 4.55 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 13.4% | 7.48 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | FAST PACE | 11.0% | 9.05 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | SALTO OLIMPICO | 9.8% | 10.19 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | JIMMU | 8.8% | 11.40 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | STARSHIP | 5.7% | 17.63 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 3.6% | 27.94 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | LIGHT MY DAY | 2.9% | 35.07 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 130
PLACE
1 14
5 33
7 20.5
QUINELLA
5,7 360
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 58
1,7 40.5
5,7 111.5
FORECAST
5,7 774
TIERCE
5,7,1 1,613
TRIO
1,5,7 295
FIRST 4
1,5,7,9 513
QUARTET
5,7,1,9 16,902
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/5 983
2/7 99
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 18.5