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Sha Tin · 2020-10-01

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 10 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with HARD PROMISE second and LUCKY QUALITY third. The 3.0 favourite EASY FIT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT CP1 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 4 5.7 N
2 5 HARD PROMISE CP-/TT2 C L Chau · T P Yung 3 7.7 N
3 2 LUCKY QUALITY C Schofield · C Fownes 2 10.0 1/2
4 6 HERO STAR TT1 N Callan · K L Man 8 3.2 2-1/2
5 1 FEARLESS FIRE B B Shinn · D A Hayes 1 14.0 4-1/4
6 3 EASY FIT J Moreira · J Size 9 3.0 4-1/4
7 10 FLYING SPIRIT XB M F Poon · D J Whyte 10 101.0 5-3/4
8 8 LUCKY PUZZLE B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 5 13.0 6-1/4
9 7 CAN'T TOUCH THIS M L Yeung · K H Ting 7 106.0 9-1/4
10 9 PLANET FLYER B C Wong · W Y So 6 198.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT2. HARD PROMISE+0.05L3. LUCKY QUALITY+0.5L4. HERO STAR+2.5L5. FEARLESS FIRE+4.25L6. EASY FIT+4.25L7. FLYING SPIRIT+5.75L8. LUCKY PUZZLE+6.25L9. CAN'T TOUCH THIS+9.25L10. PLANET FLYER+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EASY FIT (26.8%) finished 6th — the winner EVERYONE'S DELIGHT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 EASY FIT 26.8% 3.72 6
2 2 LUCKY QUALITY 16.0% 6.26 3
3 4 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 16.0% 6.26 1
4 6 HERO STAR 15.3% 6.53 4
5 1 FEARLESS FIRE 12.5% 7.99 5
6 8 LUCKY PUZZLE 7.8% 12.74 8
7 5 HARD PROMISE 2.9% 34.06 2
8 10 FLYING SPIRIT 1.4% 70.36 7
9 7 CAN'T TOUCH THIS 0.7% 138.14 9
10 9 PLANET FLYER 0.4% 224.62 10
EASY FITLUCKY QUALITYEVERYONE'S DELIGHT — wonHERO STARFEARLESS FIRELUCKY PUZZLEHARD PROMISEFLYING SPIRITCAN'T TOUCH THISPLANET FLYER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 57.5

PLACE

2 23.5

4 20.5

5 20.5

QUINELLA

4,5 211.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 70.5

2,5 96

4,5 67.5

FORECAST

4,5 455

TIERCE

4,5,2 2,626

TRIO

2,4,5 585

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 257

QUARTET

4,5,2,6 7,244

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,7/2,4,5 18,943

3 PICK 1

A1 20.5

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE

5/4 636.5

5/5 170.5